Here’s everything you need to know for the six NFL wild-card games. Which teams will win, and which players could make an impact?
The NFL playoffs’ wild-card round schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to watch in every game, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know about the officiating. Finally, Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL playoff football.
Let’s get into the full wild-card slate, including Matthew Stafford’s return to Detroit and three great rematches of regular-season matchups (Browns-Texans, Eagles-Bucs and Dolphins-Chiefs).
Jump to a matchup:
CLE-HOU | MIA-KC | PIT-BUF
GB-DAL | LAR-DET | PHI-TB
Byes: SF, BAL
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: CLE -2 (44.5)
What to watch for: The last time these two teams played, Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper finished with a team-record 265 receiving yards in Cleveland’s 36-22 win. The Texans didn’t have their starting quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who was in concussion protocol, and Case Keenum stepped in and threw two interceptions. The Texans have the utmost confidence that they can beat any team when they have Stroud, so expect this matchup to be much different now that he’s healthy. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Browns will win the turnover battle for only the third time this season. This is the first playoff matchup since the 1970 merger featuring a team that committed the league’s most turnovers (Cleveland, 37) against the team that committed the fewest (Houston, 14). The Browns have been emphasizing ball security in their building ahead of this matchup, so that should play in Cleveland’s favor. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Stroud’s weakness is solving man coverage. While he has the highest QBR in the league against zone coverage (74), he ranks 27th against man (39). His QBR decline of 35.1 is the largest from zone to man coverage this season. This weekend, Stroud will face a Browns defense that runs man coverage at the 10th-highest rate (47%) and has the best man defense in the league.
Matchup X factor: Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. — whenever they are lining up on Nico Collins. The Texans wideout had an incredible season, ranking second in yards per route run behind only Tyreek Hill. If the Browns’ corners can shut him down on any given play, that seriously depletes Stroud’s options. Emerson and Ward are good players, and this strength-on-strength matchup could decide the game. — Walder
Game-plan key: I’m looking for the Browns to scheme some deep shots for quarterback Joe Flacco. He had five completions on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield when Cleveland met Houston in Week 16. Can the Texans contain the Browns’ vertical passing game? Read more at ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: Browns | Texans
Officiating note: This game will feature two of the NFL’s most penalized teams. The Browns were flagged 138 times, second most in the NFL, while the Texans were No. 5 with 132 flags. And Browns opponents were flagged 133 times, most in the league. However, referee Clay Martin’s regular-season crew threw the fourth-fewest flags in the league at 12.4 per game. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Texans are 9-3 against the spread (ATS) in their past 12 meetings against the Browns.
Moody’s pick: Texans 24, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 50.5% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Garrett won’t be denied as Browns begin playoff journey … How Slowik has helped Stroud excel as a rookie … Ward injures knee in practice, status in question … How Ryans helped turnaround the Texans
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock | Spread: KC -4.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: The Chiefs defended wide receiver Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins about as well as they could have during their Week 9 meeting, but doing it a second time will be a challenge. Kansas City played a season-high 61% zone coverage in deference to Miami’s speed and quickness. The Chiefs held Hill to 62 yards and made him fumble, returning it for the decisive touchdown. A similar performance would give the Chiefs a great chance for victory, but can they repeat it? — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will throw a pair of touchdowns without turning the ball over. The temperature at Arrowhead Stadium is projected to feel like it’s well into the negatives by Saturday night. Tagovailoa has faced criticism for his performance in cold weather — he has lost all four of his starts in sub-45-degree weather, completing just 55% of his passes. But he will snap out of it, along with his late-season funk. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight postseason games and enters this weekend looking to tie Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Drew Brees for the third-longest streak in postseason history.
Matchup X factor: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. He hasn’t been the same player, and at this point, it has become blindingly clear that wide receiver help isn’t coming for the Chiefs. They need someone to be a dominant receiving threat, and Kelce is likely the only player on the roster who can become that if he can find his 2022 form again. — Walder
Stephen A. Smith and Shannon Sharpe agree that Miami could struggle on the road against Kansas City this week.
Game-plan key: How will the Chiefs slow down Hill? Getting some two-deep coverage variations into the game plan will be key to containing Miami’s explosive pass game. Read more at ESPN+. — Bowen
Injuries: Dolphins | Chiefs
Officiating note: The Chiefs were flagged more often for offensive holding (33) than any other team, a big reason why they ranked No. 6 overall in penalties (126). This aspect of the game would be under more scrutiny had the Dolphins not suffered a series of injuries to their top pass-rushers, but it’s still worth noting that referee Brad Rogers’ regular-season crew threw the second-most flags for offensive holding (48).
