Experts are speculating about what the former congressman Tom Suozzi’s special election win might mean for future races in the fall.
On Tuesday night, Democratic former congressman Tom Suozzi defeated Republican county legislator Mazi Pilip, winning back the seat he once held and cutting into the GOP’s razor-thin hold on the House of Representatives. The special election to replace the infamous George Santos was seen as a testing ground for the strength of both parties’ messaging ahead of the primaries and November elections. But to others, the factors that make up a special election are too specific to its district to use to predict outcomes for other races in 2024.
As the dust begins to settle, here are some of the possible takeaways for November — if any.
Democrats have a new playbook for immigration
During a short campaign, immigration quickly emerged as the district’s leading issue. Pilip attempted to paint her opponent as weak on border security. In turn, Suozzi ran to the middle, acknowledging that the state was dealing with an influx of migrants from the southern border but pointing to GOP obstructionism as proof that Republicans would prefer to use the issue as a political cudgel than to solve it.
His points were underlined by recent events in Washington, D.C. House Republicans stymied a bipartisan immigration and border Senate package, and House Speaker Mike Johnson led an unsuccessful vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, claiming that he had mishandled the border. Mayorkas was ultimately impeached during a second vote held on Tuesday along party lines.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that Suozzi made immigration a key part of his campaign and went on the offensive when Republicans tried to wield the issue against him.
“Republicans were salivating over President Biden’s horrible approval rating on immigration and the prospect of it being a giant weapon in this and future elections.
