By ruling out federal abortion restrictions, Trump provoked criticism from pro-life activists who favor a national ban.
In a Truth Social video posted this morning, Donald Trump says abortion policy should be left to the states. The result, he noted, will be a wide range of restrictions, with different states drawing lines at different points in pregnancy. Although he does not say which cutoff he prefers, he has previously said Florida’s «heartbeat» law, which applies around six weeks of gestation and prohibits most abortions, is «a terrible thing and a terrible mistake.» And in the Truth Social video, he says that «like Ronald Reagan, I’m strongly in favor of exceptions for rape, incest, and life of the mother.»
By ruling out federal abortion restrictions, Trump provoked criticism from pro-life activists who favor a national ban. But those activists will never support Joe Biden, who not only views the 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade as a grave injustice but favors legislation that would re-establish a federal right to abortion. Trump is clearly more worried about alienating voters who oppose broad restrictions on abortion, which surveys suggest is most of them.
During a Meet the Press interview last September, Trump, who once described himself as «pro-choice,» declined to say whether he would «sign federal legislation that would ban abortion at 15 weeks.» But he said he would «come together with all groups» to arrive at «something that’s acceptable,» implying that he was open to the idea of federal restrictions. Now he is saying «the states will determine [abortion policy] by vote or legislation, or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land,» meaning «the law of the state.» The bottom line, he says, is respecting «the will of the people.»
Reversing Roe, Trump argues, served that end by freeing states to regulate abortion as they see fit. Through his Supreme Court appointments, he brags, «I was proudly the person responsible for the ending of» Roe. That result, he claims, was «something that all legal scholars» on «both sides» favored.
That is obviously not accurate. While it is true that some supporters of abortion rights criticized Roe’s reasoning, that does not necessarily mean they thought the Constitution was irrelevant to the debate. As an appeals court judge, for example, the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg argued that Roe went too far, too fast, and she favored grounding a constitutional right to abortion in the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection rather than an unenumerated right to privacy or bodily autonomy. But Trump’s claim of bipartisan agreement that Roe was wrongly decided reflects his attempt to align his position with what he thinks most Americans want.
In the latest Gallup poll, 52 percent of Americans described themselves as «pro-choice,» while 44 percent identified as «pro-life.» Thirty-four percent said abortion should be «legal under any circumstances,» compared to 13 percent who said it should be «illegal in all circumstances.» A majority (51 percent) said abortion should be «legal only under certain circumstances,» a view that encompasses a wide range of policies.
That majority position could describe a broad ban with the exceptions that Trump supports, for example, or a much more liberal policy that generally allows abortion through 20 weeks of gestation, which would cover nearly all abortions. Even the 15-week limit that Florida’s Supreme Court recently upheld would allow something like 96 percent of abortions. By contrast, Florida’s «heartbeat» law, which will take effect unless voters approve an abortion-rights ballot initiative in November, covers a much larger share of abortions. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 55 percent of abortions are performed after six weeks. The ban also would apply to many abortions performed in the sixth week.
All of those policies could be described as making abortion «legal only under certain circumstances.» But Gallup also found that 47 percent of Americans thought abortion should be legal in «any» or «most» circumstances, which would rule out the law that Trump deemed «a terrible mistake.» Another 36 percent said abortion should be legal «only in a few circumstances,» which could mean a six-week ban or even a general prohibition with limited exceptions.
«When asked about the legality of abortion at different stages of pregnancy,» Gallup reports, «about two-thirds of Americans say it should be legal in the first trimester (69%), while support drops to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third.
