A deal will still be tough.
The war in Gaza hangs in the balance this week as Israel ramps up for what many predict could be the bloodiest battle of the war, while at the same time, a ceasefire deal to end the fighting — at least temporarily — looks more possible than it has in months.
On Monday, the political dynamics of the conflict shifted dramatically when Hamas announced it had accepted a draft proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release deal that had been negotiated in Cairo with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. The announcement was greeted with celebrations in the streets of Rafah and demonstrations across Israel calling on the government to take the deal and secure the release of the hostages. But the excitement was short-lived, as Israeli officials quickly said the deal was significantly different from an earlier draft they had found acceptable, and that it had been “softened” during the negotiating process in Hamas’s favor.
Even as the negotiations continued, the Israeli Defense Forces pressed on with its Rafah operations, launching a volley of strikes at the city and seizing control of the Rafah border crossing into Egypt. The actions were what many fear is the opening stage of a long-anticipated offensive into the densely packed city, the last section of the enclave outside the IDF’s direct control.
But in a sign that diplomacy has not been abandoned entirely, Israel’s war cabinet also dispatched a delegation of mediators to Cairo “to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions acceptable to Israel.” (Israeli negotiators had not been present when the latest proposal was drafted.) It has also reportedly agreed to keep its operations in Rafah limited to taking control of the area’s border crossing, rather than launching an all-out ground assault — at least for the time being.
On Tuesday, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby struck an optimistic note on a call with reporters, saying that a “close assessment of the two sides’ positions suggests that they should be able to close the remaining gaps.” That assessment is not shared by the Israelis, who say the gaps between the two sides are still wide.
As of now, there are more questions than answers about what may be the last chance for the foreseeable future to stop a war in Gaza that has killed more than 30,000 people.How did this happen?
Just three days ago, the ceasefire talks appeared to be on the verge of collapse. Israel did not even send a delegation to the talks over the weekend, which, in addition to Hamas, included the Egyptians, Qataris, and a US delegation led by CIA director William Burns. (The US does not negotiate directly with Hamas, which it considers a terrorist organization, but communicates its positions and proposals to the group through the intermediaries.) When the latest round of talks began over the weekend, Hamas had not yet issued a response to the latest ceasefire proposal, which had been pushed aggressively by the US and had been agreed to by Israel, according to media reports.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had vowed to move ahead with plans for a ground incursion into Rafah, which Israel describes as Hamas’s last holdout, but where around 1.5 million Palestinians displaced from the fighting have taken refuge.
All indications were that the two sides were not actually interested in a ceasefire. On Sunday, Hamas launched a rocket and mortar attack on a border crossing between Gaza and Israel. On Monday, Israel ordered a partial evacuation of about 110,000 people as its warplanes struck targets around Rafah.
So it came as something of a bolt out of the blue on Monday when Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal, even if it wasn’t the same one the Israelis had agreed to.
“Hamas’ acceptance of a deal that Israel says was not on the table certainly seems to have taken Israel by surprise, and also seems to have successfully forced Netanyahu’s hand by getting him to send a negotiating team to Cairo, which he had been refusing to do previously.” Michael Koplow, an expert on Israeli politics and chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, told Vox.
