A U.S. historian believes four key issues could impede the vice president’s path to the White House.
Presidential historian Allan Lichtman argues that Kamala Harris’s path to the White House is not yet «a foregone conclusion», as several unresolved issues could still impact the presidential race.
In one of his regular reports on the state of the election on Saturday, Lichtman took aim at the «herd mentality» of the U.S. mainstream media, and its «180 degree» turn on the Democrat’s chances of victory.
«The media that once virtually anointed Donald Trump as the next president is now touting Vice President Harris as overwhelmingly likely to be the next president of the United States», Lichtman said. «The problem with this pack journalism is it misses all the nuances of a presidential campaign and fails to comprehend how presidential elections really work.»
Lichtman urged viewers to focus less on «poll-driven, pundit-driven analysis», which he compared to «sports talk radio», and to instead look to his «keys to the White House» method for predicting presidential races.
His model—which has successfully forecast all but one presidential election result since 1984—has seen Lichtman being described as America’s polling «Nostradamus.»
The model consists of 13 true/false statements, referred to as «keys.» If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, that party is expected to win.
According to Lichtman, this shows that, «like Joe Biden, Kamala Harris does have some significant advantages when it comes to the fundamentals that drive presidential elections, but that her election in November is not a foregone conclusion.»
Harris’ selection to replace Biden did lose the «incumbency» key, Lichtman said, but «Democrats grew a spine and a brain and united around Harris, avoiding the loss of the contest key.
