Some think Israel may listen to international calls for a post-war plan that involves a Palestinian state if it ends the war in a position of strength.
Amid fears of a broader war in the Middle East, observers searching for glimmers of hope have suggested that a decisive victory by Israel over its adversaries could create the conditions for the next U.S. president to push for new peace talks in the region.
One argument holds that Israel may listen to international calls for a post-war plan that could include the creation of a Palestinian state if it ends the war in a position of undisputed strength, having severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah and the militant groups’ main benefactor, Iran.
Whenever the fighting is over, the thinking goes, the U.S. and its allies can take advantage of a newly reshaped Middle East to pressure Israel to resolve one of the most intractable conflicts in the world.
«The premise [is] interesting, but it assumes all of this is going to give Israel greater strength», said John McLaughlin, a former acting director of the CIA under President George W. Bush. «That’s plausible, but we don’t know yet where it’s going.»
One year into the war, Israel has decimated Hamas in a relentless military campaign in Gaza that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to authorities there. They do not say how many of those are fighters. Hamas sparked the war with an attack inside Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 that killed 1,200 people.
Hamas is still actively fighting Israel in Gaza and still holds roughly 100 hostages. But its military capability has been drastically reduced and it does not pose the same threat to Israel that it did before the war.
Israel has also exacted a heavy toll on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Roughly half of the group’s vast weapons arsenal has been destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in recent days, according to military experts, and the ground operation Israel launched in southern Lebanon is expected to reduce Hezbollah’s ability to fire rockets into northern Israel.
Escalating tensions following an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel have raised fears of a regional war. But even with the outcome of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah and standoff with Iran unclear, Middle East analysts and military experts said Israel has already succeeded in reestablishing its military deterrence after the Oct. 7 attack.
«They certainly restored their deterrence», said Mohammed Hafez, an expert on Middle East politics at the Naval Postgraduate School.
Still, «we’ve seen this play out before, where Israel tactically wins the war or battle and a few years later the same groups rise again from the ashes, and sometimes stronger», Hafez said.
