With the 2024 presidential election results now out, many forecasters have been proved wrong. But which were right?
The run-up to the 2024 election saw numerous predictions and forecasts, and inevitably, not everyone was correct about who the next president would be.
Prominent forecast models had drastic fluctuations during the election cycle because of unexpected events, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropping out of the race and President Joe Biden being replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris.
President-elect Donald Trump claimed victory after winning the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and he could pick up more, as Michigan, Nevada and Arizona have not finished counting their votes.
Below, we analyze several of the forecasts made in the lead-up to Tuesday’s election. Newsweek has contacted the pollsters listed for comment.Nate Silver
As one of the most recognizable names in polling, Nate Silver’s prediction carried a significant amount of weight throughout the election. His model, the Silver Bulletin, predicted on Tuesday that Harris had a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Trump’s 49.6 percent.
In the final days of the election, Silver said that the race was a «pure toss-up» and that «50-50 is the only responsible forecast.» However, a couple of days before Election Day, he also said his gut told him that Trump would win.
