Putin’s desire for a ceasefire which only covers long-range attacks on energy and infrastructure targets shows just how vulnerable Russia is to these strikes.
Expectations were low for the phone call between the U.S. and Russian leaders this Tuesday. While President Zelensky had agreed in principle to a 30-day ceasefire, Putin was expected to place conditions which would be impossible to meet, and blame Europe of Ukraine for the breakdown in negotiations. Instead, he did something surprising.
During the call, Putin agreed to a ceasefire, but a limited one only, a ceasefire that would see a pause only in long-range attacks on energy and infrastructure. Anyone who cared about humanitarian issues would be more concerned about fighting on the ground, which kills more than a thousand Russian soldiers every day. But evidently Putin is more worried about Ukrainian attacks which are burning down Russia’s oil and gas facilities.The Energy War
Putin is an astute politician and will not agree to any deal not weighted heavily in his favor. But he is smart enough to frame it in terms of both sides gaining.
On the face of it, an end to attacks on infrastructure should come as a relief for Ukraine, which is hammered by ever-increasing numbers of Shahed drones. The Russian launched almost 400 Shaheds in February 2024; a year later that number was up to almost 4,000. Waves of more than a hundred Shaheds each night have become common.
The drone attacks are focused on Ukraine’s electricity grid, striking power plants and substations. A report by United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission said that at one point 73 per cent of the country’s thermal power generating units were out of action. But this attempt to freeze Ukraine into submission has failed, and as spring arrives the pressure on power generation will slacken.
More importantly, Ukraine has matched the Russian drone assault with ever-improving defenses. The new “Sky Fortress” acoustic detection system, networked radar and other sensors detect and track every drone. Aircraft, missiles and mobile fire groups with automatic cannon bring them down.
