Trump’s sweeping tariffs, inflammatory rhetoric, and not-so-veiled annexation talk handed Mark Carney a nationalist wave to ride into a snap election.
The first round of new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are expected to take effect Wednesday. A second wave targeting lumber and steel is set to follow within weeks. Following his first call with newly installed prime minister Mark Carney, in which the two leaders discussed the looming tariffs, Donald Trump told reporters «We are going to end up with a very good relationship with Canada.»
Trump may have spoken too soon. The trade war isn’t just targeting Canada’s economy—it redrew the country’s political map. Trump’s sweeping tariffs, inflammatory rhetoric, and not-so-veiled annexation talk may have been designed to pressure Ottawa, but instead they revived Canada’s ruling Liberal Party, deepened a civil war among its Conservatives, and handed Carney a nationalist wave to ride into a snap election.
On March 31, Carney—just weeks into the job—called a federal election for April 28. It was a bold but calculated move. «President Trump claims that Canada isn’t a real country», Carney told reporters. «He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen.»
Only a few weeks ago, the Liberals were facing political disaster. After Justin Trudeau’s resignation, the party trailed the Conservatives by 26 to 27 points. Pollsters projected a Conservative super-majority of up to 240 seats in the newly expanded 343-seat House of Commons.
Everything changed after the March 4 tariff announcement. Trump imposed a 25 percent levy on most Canadian imports and a 10 percent tax on energy, citing Canada’s alleged role in fentanyl smuggling and migrant crossings. Experts immediately dismissed those claims as baseless—Canada is not a source country for fentanyl, and more crossings occur into Canada than out of it. On top of the tariff threats, Trump personally insulted Canadian leadership and sovereignty, calling Trudeau a «governor» and referring to Canada as the «51st state.
