Far-right win is a real possibility in Romania, while Poles and Portuguese are also voting today
Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan on course to win in Romania – exit poll
Exit poll CURS/Avangarde:
Nicușor Dan 54.9%
George Simion 45.1%
Romanian exit polls are expected imminently.
Ready?Keep an eye on Romanian diaspora vote
A key point to watch for as the Romanian results start to come in after polling stations close at 9pm local time (8pm CET) will be the vote of the country’s large diaspora, which in the first round two weeks’ ago voted more than 60% for Simion.
Over the past couple of decades almost 20% of Romania’s population have gone looking for better opportunities abroad and estimates of the current diaspora begin at about 4 million. By 7pm local time, the astonishingly high number of 1.6 million already had cast their votes, including over 260,000 in the UK.
“The diaspora has been strongly anti-system for some time, which now means they are strongly far-right,” said Cristian Pirvelescu, head of the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest.
“In Italy, where the Romanian community is more than a million, nearly 75% voted for Simion in the first round. Romanians abroad live in what is a kind of ‘virtual Romania’, very online, and they don’t believe in the traditional media.”
The far-right candidate also did well in Germany and Spain, which have large Romanian communities. “Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt,” said Sciences-Po researcher Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean.
“It’s also a vote with socioeconomic motivations, since in these western societies, the Romanian diaspora is largely working class. Finally, it’s also a vote about identity – they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and desire to return to Romania.”
In central and eastern Europe – countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary – the pro-European candidate, Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, finished first, most likely reflecting Simion’s opposition to sending sending further military aid to Ukraine. There are more than 900 polling stations abroad, with voting allowed over three days.
Whatever its motivations, the diaspora vote – perhaps more than a million ballots, as much as 10% of the first-round total – can clearly swing a tight election.
