Four key changes influenced the timing of the attacks on Iran.
Last night, Israel struck at Iranian nuclear facilities, military installations, and high-ranking military leaders and nuclear scientists, dealing an audacious blow at what Israelis of all stripes have long viewed as an existential threat. The attack also took many analysts, including me, by surprise. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to take such action for decades, but was never ready to execute. He was always restrained by military, diplomatic, and political factors, leaving Israel perpetually teetering on the edge of attacking Iran’s nuclear program. And then last night, it took a decisive jump forward.
Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, several events combined to remove the constraints that had operated on Netanyahu, enabling him to forge ahead at the same time that Iran was allegedly racing toward nuclear breakout. The first and most important was Israel’s devastatingly successful campaign in August and September to take out Hezbollah’s top leadership and destroy much of its advanced-rocket stores. That attack provided a proof of concept for the similar campaign unfolding now against Iran.
The combination of Israeli air power and intelligence neutralized Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities, preventing an immediate response that would have overwhelmed the Israeli home front. The universal assumption in Israeli security circles had been that a war with Hezbollah might be necessary but would be very costly. The unexpected degree of success, however, reduced Israeli wariness about launching a similar campaign against Iran, despite expectations that a severe Iranian response might still be forthcoming.
Israeli fear of diplomatic blowback has also diminished—ironically, not because such blowback has lessened, but because it has increased.
