Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently has a 4% chance of smashing into the Moon in about seven years. Astronomers are already working out ways to prevent a potential impact.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 garnered global attention last year when astronomers estimated it could hit Earth in 2032. Though they have since ruled out that possibility, this large space rock still has a 4% chance of smashing into the Moon.
Those are pretty slim odds, but on the off chance 2024 YR4 does end up on a collision course with the Moon, the scientific community needs to be prepared. Astronomers have found evidence to suggest that a lunar impact could eject an enormous amount of micrometeoroid debris into low-Earth orbit, potentially endangering spacecraft and astronauts aboard the International Space Station.
A new study by researchers from NASA and several other U.S. institutions lays out our options for avoiding this worst-case scenario. In the paper—submitted to the Journal of the Astronautical Sciences for peer review and made available on the preprint server arXiv—the authors assess multiple strategies for deflecting or destroying the asteroid before it can slam into the lunar surface. Their conclusion? It looks like blowing it up would be our best bet.Why we shouldn’t deflect asteroid 2024 YR4
Detonation is not typically the preferred strategy. Deflecting 2024 YR4 would ensure that no part of it could impact the Moon or Earth, whereas detonating it could turn one large, predictable threat into numerous smaller, unpredictable ones.
