Google DeepMind’s Weather Lab only began releasing forecasts in June, and it’s out-performing traditional models.
During hurricane season, meteorologists rely on a variety of different forecast models. As this season comes to an end, experts are taking stock of which ones performed well and which ones didn’t, and Google’s rookie model has left them absolutely gobsmacked.
Though Google DeepMind’s Weather Lab only began releasing forecasts in June, it was by far the best model for predicting hurricane track and intensity this season, according to a preliminary analysis by Brian McNoldy, a meteorologist and senior researcher at the University of Miami. Meanwhile, America’s flagship weather model—the Global Forecast System—was the worst performing.
The National Hurricane Center will release official data on each model’s performance in a few months, but this initial assessment foreshadows a turning point in hurricane forecasting. With the incredible superiority of AI-based models becoming blatantly apparent, it may be time to start phasing out traditional, physics-based models.
“Going forward, it is safe to say that we will rely heavily on Google and other AI weather models, which are likely to improve in the coming years, as they are relatively new and have room for improvement,” Houston-based meteorologist and space reporter Eric Berger wrote for Ars Technica.
