Growing Chinese and Korean missile capabilities are forcing Washington’s hand with regard to the INF withdrawal.
On October 20, U. S. President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the United States from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, an arms control agreement that has been in effect since the late Cold War which limits the types of missiles Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) and the United States were allowed to deploy. Specifically, the treaty prevented either power from deploying intermediate range (1,000–5,500 km) nuclear or conventional missiles or their launchers or upper-end short ranged missiles which could strike targets over 500 km away — though it excluded munitions launched by aircraft and warships. The treaty came into effect on June 1,1988 and according to a number of historians marked the end of the Cold War. It forced both parties to destroy significant portions of their missile arsenals, terminate a number of ongoing weapons programs and has seriously restricted the ability of either to diversify their strike capabilities. While Russia and the United States have since 2014 accused one another on numerous occasions of minor violations, the U. S. withdrawal from the INF can be better understood in the context of the growing threat to its power posed by military rivals other than Russia — specifically China and North Korea.
The INF Treaty was drafted at a time when the United States and the Soviet Union were by far the world’s most militarily powerful nations, with neither country perceiving considerable threats to their military primacy from any third parties. The missile capabilities of both superpowers were well above and beyond those of any rivals, and as such, a treaty which bound them to limit their missile capabilities appeared an effective means of ensuring a more stable balance of power and an end to the costly arms race both had for decades pursued. In the 21st century however, while the INF treaty remains well suited to Russia’s security interests, continued adherence to the Cold War era document has seriously undermined the United States’ ability to contend with the growing strike capabilities of emerging “great power rivals” — a term used by the State Department to refer to major military powers capable of challenging the United States.
