For sports bettors, it’s not too early to start thinking about a potential matchup between the two college football teams that have been historically dominant this season….
For sports bettors, it’s not too early to start thinking about a potential matchup between the two college football teams that have been historically dominant this season.
It’s not too early to gamble on it either. Lines on a prospective Alabama vs. Clemson contest in the College Football Playoff are getting easier to find around Las Vegas.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook joined in on the prospective fun this week, posting the Crimson Tide as an 8.5-point favorite over the Tigers. That follows the Golden Nugget, which opened Alabama as a 10.5-point favorite in the matchup weeks ago.
The bets will be refunded if the game does not occur, of course, but every week it appears it will take a bigger upset to prevent an eventual meeting. Alabama and Clemson both looked better than ever in week 10, with the former shutting out LSU 29-0 as a 14-point favorite and the latter demolishing Louisville 77-16 as 38-point favorites.
They’re both 20-plus point favorites in this week’s hurdles standing in the way of a fourth straight College Football Playoff showdown between the two powers.
Talking Points is picking one of the two favorites on the point spread, and going against the other after correctly handicapping both Clemson’s and Alabama’s games last week. The blog went 31-22-2 picking every game — 1-3-1 on plays, 9-4 on leans and 21-15-1 on guesses —to bring the season record to 244-256-9 —26-21-1 on plays, 72-76-3 on leans and 146-159-5 on guesses.
Check below to find sides in every remaining game on the week 11 schedule. Picks are separated by conference, listed in rough order of confidence and labeled in three separate categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas.
ACC
Miami plus-3.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 55.5. The Hurricanes’ problems have become overstated as they were only truly outplayed once in their current three-game losing streak — when they lost 27-14 at Boston College as 3-point favorites. The two teams share the same 5-4 straight-up record, but Miami’s point differential is plus-114 to Georgia Tech’s plus-73. Play: Miami plus-3.5.
Virginia Tech plus-3 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 54.5. Buying low on the Hokies, which are getting no betting attention after dropping four consecutive games against the spread and only winning one of them outright. Pittsburgh has looked much better with the exact opposite results — 3-1 straight-up, 4-0 against the spread — but still has less depth and talent than Virginia Tech. Lean: Virginia Tech plus-3.
Clemson minus-20 at Boston College, over/under: 57. Boston College is known for being a hard-nosed, ball-control team, but that hasn’t been the case this year. The Eagles have ramped up their paced, which has worked well for them but may backfire against Clemson, only serving to enhance the visitors decided edge. Bookmakers have struggled to accurately compute Clemson anyway, as the Tigers have covered by an average of 27.5 points per game during a four-game winning and covering streak. Guess: Clemson minus-20.5.
Liberty plus-23.5 at Virginia, over/under: 60.5. The Flames quietly have the much more explosive offense, as the Cavaliers have gotten by off of a more methodical approach to pair with a dominating defense. Virginia should still win comfortably, but it’s not the kind of team that’s easy to back at big numbers. Guess: Liberty plus-23.5.
North Carolina plus-10 at Duke, over/under: 58.5. Someone, or more likely, some group, has come in on the Tar Heels to steam this line down 1.5 points, but it’s hard to figure out how they possibly look like an attractive bet. North Carolina coach Larry Fedora is almost surely on his way out, and is at a disadvantage against Duke’s David Cutcliffe to begin with. Guess: Duke minus-10.
Louisville plus-21 at Syracuse, over/under: 69.5. From a talent standpoint, this is way too many points as there’s not much separating the two teams in that department. But Louisville hasn’t shown any evidence of as much as trying over the last month, not coming within a touchdown of covering in its last four games, so it’s impossible to back. Guess: Syracuse minus-21.
Big Ten
Ohio State minus-3.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 52. The line on this game was Ohio State minus-10.5 a month ago, and perhaps just as importantly, minus-17.5 a year ago when virtually the same Michigan State team lost 48-3 in Columbus, Ohio. Must buy low on the Buckeyes, which are hitting its nadir after five straight point-spread losses. Lean: Ohio State minus-3.5.
Maryland plus-1.5 at Indiana, over/under: 55.5. Giving the Terrapins a pass for their 24-3 loss to Michigan State as 3-point underdogs last week because of all the controversy surrounding now-fired coach D. J. Durkin. This is a better matchup anyway, as Maryland is powered by an explosive running game that Indiana is ill-suited to defend. Lean: Maryland plus-1.5.
Northwestern plus-11 at Iowa, over/under: 44. It’s time to stop underestimating Northwestern, which already perennially overachieved under Pat Fitzgerald but might be taking it to a new level this year. The Wildcats have won 12 of their last 13 Big Ten games dating back to last season, and have covered five of the last six when they’ve taken double digits. Lean: Northwestern plus-11.
Purdue minus-11.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 59. Teams are often sparked by a coaching change, and the Golden Gophers fired defensive coordinator Robb Smith after two blowout losses in the last three games with Joe Rossi taking over on an interim basis. That anecdotal reasoning is typically not the best handicapping method, but even elemental defensive improvement could go a long way for the Golden Gophers, especially with a spread this inflated. Guess: Minnesota plus-12.5.
Wisconsin plus-9.5 at Penn State, over/under: 56.5. Penn State is the better team, but its goals were essentially bulldozed in the most devastating way imaginable via last week’s 42-7 loss at Michigan. Wisconsin, meanwhile, needs to keep pace to stay alive for a shot at the Big Ten West division. The situational edge may not matter with fewer points, but this is a hulking number. Guess: Wisconsin plus-9.5.
Illinois plus-17.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 68. The Huskers are playing much better, but all of their strides have been made on the offensive end. Nebraska’s defense is still in the nation’s bottom third in giving up an alarming 6.3 yards per play to Football Bowl Subdivision opponents, or in other words, is way too untrustworthy to lay this many points. Guess: Illinois plus-17.5.
Rutgers plus-40 at Michigan, over/under: 47.5. Michigan has been undervalued for most of the season, but it’s hard to say that’s still the case when it’s one of the biggest favorites of the year. The Wolverines’ offense still only registers as decent, averaging 6.1 yards per play to rank outside of the top 25,so it’s no cinch to score 40 points on any given week. Guess: Rutgers plus-40.
Big 12
Kansas plus-10.5 at Kansas State, over/under: 45.5. Program reputation is the only thing bloating this point spread, as the archrivals have actually been incredibly even this season — with Kansas gaining 5 yards per play to Kansas State’s 4.9 on offense and both teams giving up an identical 6.2 yards per play on defense. Although it was announced he will not be retained for next season, Kansas coach David Beaty will remain until the end of the year with his players vowing extra effort for him. Play: Kansas plus-10.5.
TCU plus-12.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 56. Terrible spot for West Virginia, which is coming off of a 42-41 win at Texas and going into an easy-to-overlook game with 4-5 straight-up TCU. The Horned Frogs are far better than their record, though, and coach Gary Patterson is 23-8 against the spread as a double-digit underdog. Play: TCU plus-12.5.
Texas minus-2 at Texas Tech, over/under: 62.5. Most advanced metrics would label Texas Tech as the slightly better team, including Football Outsiders F/+ ratings, which have the Red Raiders at No. 31 to the Longhorns’ No. 33. Texas Tech therefore has no business being a home underdog, even if quarterback Alan Bowman is hurt. Jett Duffey has been just as explosive, and Kliff Kinsgbury’s system has mostly upheld the same efficiency regardless of who’s at the helm. Play: Texas Tech plus-2.
Oklahoma State plus-21 at Oklahoma, over/under: 79.5. The Cowboys’ defense doesn’t stand a prayer of stopping the Sooners. There’s been a lot of talk about how poorly Oklahoma’s defense has played but it’s actually improved to the point it’s more efficient than Oklahoma State’s — giving up 5.2 yards per play to its rival’s 5.3 yards per play. That means the Sooners have advantages all over the field. Lean: Oklahoma minus-21.
Baylor plus-14.5 at Iowa State, over/under: 51. Promised last week to keep spouting this statistic as long as Iowa State keeps winning so here it goes: The Cyclones are now 21-5 against the spread under coach Matt Campbell in the Big 12. Hereby promising to continue picking Iowa State every week at least until its current 14-game conference covering streak ends. Lean: Iowa State minus-14.5.
Pac-12
Oregon plus-4 at Utah, over/under: 55.5. The Utes were shaping up to be around a 10-point favorite in this spot before losing quarterback Tyler Huntley for the season. Would prefer more than a touchdown adjustment to back freshman Jacob Shelley but this is a spot where he could excel, against an Oregon defense sitting at 82 nd in the nation by the S&P+ ratings. Lean: Utah minus-4.
UCLA plus-13.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 61.5. The Sundevils are coming off of a major 38-20 upset win over Utah last week. The last time they pulled off a similar victory, 16-13 over Michigan State, they no-showed the next week and lost to San Diego State, 28-21. That’s just one example of why Arizona State is too inconsistent to trust laying a big number. Lean: UCLA plus-13.5.
Oregon State plus-24 at Stanford, over/under: 60. One Pac-12 victory shouldn’t have entitled the Beavers to this big of a shift in the betting market. This is the same price they were offered at ahead of a 41-34 win at Colorado — but Stanford is a whole lot better than Colorado. Guess: Stanford minus-24.
Washington State minus-6 at Colorado, over/under: 60.5. Number looks a few points short, as Colorado has been unable to stop any team during a four-game losing streak. The Buffaloes’ secondary has been particularly problematic, and might be picked apart again by Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew. Guess: Washington State minus-6.
California plus-5 at USC, over/under: 47.5. Skeptical that a 38-21 win over Oregon State as 15-point favorites signals that USC is back to belonging in the Pac-12 title conversation. California will have a massive advantage on the sidelines with coach Justin Wilcox regardless of how much staff shuffling USC coach Clay Helton does. Guess: California plus-5.
SEC
LSU minus-14 at Arkansas, over/under: 48.5. The Razorbacks are coming off of a bye week for a game they consider their biggest of the season. The Tigers are coming off of grueling battle and lopsided loss against Alabama that ended all of their biggest goals of the season to play a team that considers them a big-time rival. Play: Arkansas plus-14.
Mississippi State plus-24 at Alabama, over/under: 53. For one week, don’t expect Alabama’s offense to score at will. Mississippi State might have the best defensive front outside of Clemson and Michigan, and ranks sixth nationally in only giving up 4.3 yards per play. The Bulldogs are easily stingy enough to stay within an inflated number coming out of the Crimson Tide’s biggest win of the season. Lean: Mississippi State plus-24.
Ole Miss plus-12 at Texas A&M, over/under: 66.5. These are both bet-against teams, as Ole Miss is undisciplined and mistake-prone while Texas A&M is perpetually overvalued in a rebuilding year under Jimbo Fisher.
