BEIJING — U. S. President Donald Trump believes he is about to score yet another big win on trade, this time with China. Progress in talks…
BEIJING — U. S. President Donald Trump believes he is about to score yet another big win on trade, this time with China. Progress in talks with Beijing, he claims, has been so “substantial” that he’s delayed a looming March 1 deadline and is likely headed for a summit with China’s President Xi Jinping to finalize a long-awaited settlement.
This latest “win,” however, is shaping up to be a typical Trump victory — much, much more smoke than fire. And the potential consequences could be costly: long-term damage to U. S. credibility with China and, more broadly, within the entire global economic order.
So far, Trump’s negotiators appear to have made headway on large-scale Chinese purchases of American goods to narrow the trade deficit, some market-opening measures for U. S. companies, a pledge not to manipulate the yuan and perhaps better protection for U. S. intellectual property.
The progress, though, has come in areas that either mean little to China, such as reducing the trade deficit, or are already in line with overall Chinese policy, as in improving intellectual property rights. The Chinese delegation so far appears to have deftly dodged concessions that would force fundamental changes in Beijing’s core policy agenda and state-led economic system. Of course, talks are still ongoing, so further breakthroughs are possible. But, as Trump seems more and more intent on sealing a deal, they’re increasingly unlikely.
That means the China trade agreement will in all likelihood follow an all-too-familiar pattern: Trump talks big but settles for little. Last year, he sold a revised free-trade agreement with South Korea as “brand new” when the changes were cosmetic.
