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2019 predictions #2 and #3 — A Virtual Private Cloud (VPC) shakeout and legal trouble for AWS

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Prediction #2 — And then there were only 3.5 VPC Cloud players. Cloud computing will continue to grow in 2019 with the key term being not Public Cloud, Private Cloud or Hybrid Cloud — which are all so 2018 — but Virtual Private Cloud (VPC). Virtual Private Cloud is an Amazon Web Services (AWS) invention but all the AWS competitors seem to be embracing the idea.
Prediction #2 — And then there were only 3.5 VPC Cloud players. Cloud computing will continue to grow in 2019 with the key term being not Public Cloud, Private Cloud or Hybrid Cloud — which are all so 2018 — but Virtual Private Cloud (VPC). Virtual Private Cloud is an Amazon Web Services (AWS) invention but all the AWS competitors seem to be embracing the idea.
What has developed is that the VPC solution based on Open Source using Linux will change the Internet-as-a-Service (IaaS) Cloudscape to VPC-only during 2019.
Gartner has certainly embraced it. Here’s a 2018 Magic Quadrant chart showing how Gartner sees the segment shaping-up.
The first thing to notice here is the small number of competitors. A similar chart from 2017 listed at least a dozen. So what happened? They pulled-out of the Gartner analysis.
It’s not that these companies are out of business, but they appear to have ceded the segment to these six.
For those unfamiliar with Gartner’s Magic Quadrant concept, the winners are always in the upper right box, which in this case is to say that Gartner views IBM, Oracle, and Alibaba as cloud losers.
For IBM and Oracle I’d say this is true and I’ll explain more about that in Prediction #3, but in the case of Alibaba I think Gartner has it wrong. BABA may well have what’s right now an uncompetitive cloud offering, but as the only Chinese company in the chart they will not be allowed to fail. Political pressures are so high that Alibaba will push forward with its cloud offering no matter how much it costs or how little it earns.

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