If people give up masks and social distancing and stop getting vaccinated, ‘we could be right back here in the winter with surge five,’ an infectious-disease specialist says.
COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are coming down again, hospitalizations are dropping, and new cases per day are about to dip below 100,000 for the first time in two months – all signs that the summer surge is waning. Not wanting to lose momentum, government leaders and employers are looking to strengthen vaccine requirements. Los Angeles enacted one of the nation’s strictest vaccine mandates Wednesday, a sweeping measure that would require the shots for everyone entering a bar, restaurant, nail salon, gym or Lakers game. New York City and San Francisco have similar rules. Minnesota’s governor this week called for vaccine and testing requirements for teachers and long-term care workers. In New York, a statewide vaccination mandate for all hospital and nursing home workers will be expanded Thursday to home care and hospice employees. Across the nation, deaths per day have dropped by nearly 15 percent since mid-September and are now averaging about 1,750. New cases have fallen to just over 103,000 per day on average, a 40 percent decline over the past three weeks. The number of Americans now in the hospital with COVID-19 has declined by about one-quarter since its most recent peak of almost 94,000 a month ago. “What we’re seeing is what we’ve seen in the prior three surges,” said Dr. Marybeth Sexton, an infectious-disease specialist at Emory University School of Medicine. “What we need to remember is when we see these numbers go down, it’s not a signal to let up. It’s a signal to push harder.” If people give up masks and social distancing and stop getting vaccinated, “we could be right back here in the winter with surge five,” she said. The decreases have been especially sharp in several Deep South states, where cases have gone down more than twice as fast as they have nationwide. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas all saw their case numbers cut in half over the past two weeks. What’s behind the decline isn’t entirely clear, though health experts point out that the numbers are falling as more people are getting vaccinated and new requirements for the shot are being put in place by government and private employers.
