Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to change the course of the Ukraine war. Will it work?
Russian President Vladimir Putin committed to a partial military mobilization in a speech Wednesday, where he also threatened nuclear retaliation against the West. It was a sign of Putin’s willingness to escalate the war in Ukraine, as Kyiv’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region has recaptured territory and pushed back Russian front lines.
Putin stopped short of decreeing a full national mobilization, instead only drafting the army reserves, a move he said was “necessary and urgent.” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu later confirmed that Russia would call about 300,000 reservists with previous military experience.
Putin also again made explicit threats against the West. “If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal,” he said. “This is not a bluff.” Putin warned that Russia “also has various means of destruction” — in other words, nuclear weapons — “and some components are more modern than those of the NATO countries.”
This is a particularly chilling threat, as Putin’s Wednesday address came shortly after Russian-backed officials in four Ukrainian regions partially occupied by Russian troops moved to hold referenda on formally joining Russia. Western countries backing Ukraine have already said they won’t recognize any votes, calling them total shams. The Russian army also does not have full control over any of these territories — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — but Moscow will almost certainly use these referenda as a pretext for formally annexing the territories. If that happens, as it’s expected to, some experts fear that Moscow will interpret any Ukrainian efforts to retake these lands as bringing the fight directly against Russia. The West has not supported Ukraine attacking Russian territory, but they have made clear these referenda are illegitimate.
All of this — the referenda, the partial military mobilization, and Putin’s renewed nuclear saber-rattling — are part of an effort to shake up a floundering war effort and to preserve his domestic standing.
“This wasn’t unexpected, because at this point, [Putin] is pushed into the corner. He had to do something,” said Natia Seskuria, a Russia expert and associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. “I think today’s statement does not come from the position of strength; it is rather a demonstration of weakness, because I think he feels like he’s under a lot of pressure.”
Western leaders have echoed this sentiment: A European Union official described Putin’s statement as a “dangerous nuclear gamble,” and the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink called the referenda and mobilization “signs of weakness, of Russian failure.”
Still, there is still a lot of uncertainty around what Putin’s announcement might mean in this particular phase of the war.
