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Control of the House of Representatives is on the ballot in November and, with it, the ability for President Joe Biden to achieve much of his remaining political agenda.
Democrats currently control the House and Senate, but historical trends and numerous polls suggest that Republicans will flip at least the House in November.
But that win looks less certain now than it did earlier this year, with factors like the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning a national right to abortion boosting Democratic odds.
«Three months ago, it looked like a category five hurricane was heading for President Biden and House Democrats,» wrote Dave Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
«Today, not only has it weakened to a tropical depression, but GOP primaries have thrown Democrats enough sandbags to give them a plausible, if still unlikely, scenario to stave off a Republican majority,» he added.
Here are 12 House races to watch in November that could help determine control of the chamber (* denotes incumbent):
Rep. David Valadao is one of the 10 House GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump last year, and the only one to have not faced a Trump-backed primary challenger. Valadao still faced two challengers from the right during the primary, but did well enough to make it on to the ballot in November – one of only two GOP impeachers (along with Washington State Republican Dan Newhouse) to do so.
While he is one of the only two GOP impeachment backers to reach the November election, Valadao is among the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle. He faces a tough reelection battle in this agriculturally key Central Valley district, which became more Democratic following redistricting – registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 17 percentage points in the district.
Democrats are excited about their candidate in the race, state assemblyman Rudy Salas. Salas has the backing of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ campaign arm and the Blue Dog PAC, which backs centrist Democrats. Salas was the first Latino Bakersfield city councilmember.
A brand new congressional seat is up for grabs, one of a handful added around the country in redistricting.
Colorado gained a seat following the 2020 Census count, and the new lines are competitive: President Joe Biden won the area in 2020, while Trump won it in 2016. The district is more than 30% Hispanic, and extends north from the Denver suburbs to Greeley.
State Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer emerged from a contentious primary to win the Republican nomination for the brand new seat. Kirkmeyer previously served as Weld County Commissioner for 20 years.
Democrats hope to make abortion a key issue in the race. State Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a Mexican American pediatrician, is the party’s nominee.
Abortion is a key issue in the race: Caraveo backs abortion access, while Kirkmeyer does not but removed a promise to «defend the sanctity of life» from her campaign website going into the general election where she’ll have to appeal to moderates as well as conservatives.
A Democratic incumbent who has taken steps to separate himself from his party faces a rematch of one of the closest races in the 2018 blue wave.
Trump carried this largely rural district by 6 points in 2020, so the odds are against incumbent Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. But Golden, a former Marine and one-time staffer to GOP Maine Sen. Susan Collins, has taken steps to distance himself from the national party by voting against Biden’s Build Back Better and the American Rescue Plan.
Nonetheless, Poliquin and Republicans have attacked Golden for voting for the Inflation Reduction Act which passed the House in August on a party line vote with all Democrats voting in favor with no Republicans joining them.
