Polling data shows independent presidential candidate RFK Jr. will likely have a substantial effect on the outcome of the 2024 election.
Recent polling data shows independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will likely have a substantial effect on the outcome of the 2024 election. In fact, some data suggest his campaign is the most important factor currently affecting the race.
For example, a November New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters in Wisconsin, a swing state, found that Kennedy has the support of 21 percent of voters in that state, compared to 37 percent for President Joe Biden and 35 percent for former President Donald Trump.
Similarly, a Morning Consult survey of registered voters in Michigan, another key battleground state, shows Kennedy with 10 percent support. Biden had 38 percent and Trump received 37 percent of support from voters.
Recent polls in other swing states — including Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — show similar results.
Perhaps most notable of all, an important national survey of registered voters by Quinnipiac University, published in early November, revealed that a whopping 22 percent of voters nationally say they would cast their ballots for RFK Jr. in a three-person race with Biden and Trump. Quinnipiac further found that Kennedy is likely to draw more voters away from Trump than from Biden.RFK Jr.’s Pitch to the Right
There are numerous reasons why Kennedy has in recent weeks gained additional attention from potential voters. One of the most important is that he has made a strong appeal to many conservatives and libertarians who are unhappy with the prospect of another presidential election with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket.
In Kennedy, some on the right only see an anti-establishment independent who is willing to take on elites in both parties. RFK Jr.’s campaign has attracted others because he has taken prominent libertarian-aligned stances on a handful of important issues, such as the Covid-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates.
Although it’s true that Kennedy is not your average establishment Democrat, he’s certainly not aligned with conservative or libertarian values. On some issues, he’s even further to the left than Biden. RFK Jr.’s policy proposals on issues related to climate and energy development serve as good examples.
