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Alternate headline: You Know What Happens When You Assume?
According to most mainstream media outlets, the addition of Tim Walz to the ticket gives Kamala Harris immediate reach into rural America. Walz himself came from rural Minnesota, they have reminded readers and viewers. He has a connection to red-state America! Walz didn’t go to an Ivy League college, and he worked as a teacher before going into politics. It’s the common touch that Kamala Harris and the Democrat elite clique need — after kicking «Scranton Joe» Biden to the curb and anointing Harris as the nominee.
Oddly enough, only MSNBC among the Stenogralism industry has taken a closer look at the assumptions inherent in that argument. Does Walz have a special connection to rural America — or even rural Minnesota? Both David and I scoffed at that idea yesterday, having seen Walz’ gubernatorial campaigns up close. MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki ended up just as skeptical after looking at the data:
‘You Don’t Quite See That’: MSNBC Data Guru Delivers Brutal Reality Check To Dems After Walz Pick pic.twitter.com/J020ClHAtw— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) August 6, 2024
One of the Democrats’ chief challenges in those states is in blue-collar and small-town areas, where the party once ran competitively (or at least respectably) before the floor fell out amid and after Donald Trump’s emergence in 2016. The thinking is that Walz’s story and style will be relatable and reassuring to some of those voters, blunting at least part of the Trump GOP’s newfound dominance.
There’s a catch, though: Walz wasn’t able to do that himself in his last campaign. .
What’s striking, if anything, is how different the Walz and Biden numbers are from Obama’s. When Obama won his two elections, he joined strong metro-area support with respectable showings (and sometimes better) among small-town and blue-collar voters.
