Analysis: To defeat Donald Trump, Kamala Harris should avoid talking about the economy
When Kamala Harris sat down for her first interview since Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign, the initial subject she chose to discuss was her economic agenda.
When Donald Trump made his semi-triumphant return to Twitter/X, his opening tweet posed a very Reagan-esque question to the online masses: “Are you better off now than when I was president?”
Only one of those decisions made for good political strategy.
Trump’s message was no accident. The rest of the tweet mentioned only two issues, the economy and immigration, but the economy came first, and for good reason. Not only do voters consistently rate it as their most important concern in the 2024 presidential race (and often select inflation as the second-most important when that’s offered as a separate category), but Trump holds a significant lead when respondents are asked about the subject.
Trump has maintained his advantage even as Harris has sparked dramatic swings in other areas. The latest ABC/ /Ipsos poll highlights an enormous turnaround on the question of which candidate has the physical health to serve as president, for example, with Harris enjoying a 56 to 26 percent advantage just one month after the July edition of the same poll had Trump leading Biden by 44 to 13 percent. Harris has erased Trump’s previous 34-point margin with regard to “strong enthusiasm” among supporters, with both sides now sporting a dead-even 60% mark. And the sitting vice president has taken a 15-point lead among independent voters, whereas Trump led Biden by four points in July.
Regardless of whatever statistics Harris or any other Democrat might throw out there, poll numbers imply that no amount of persuasion will convince voters that they feel better about the economy now than they did under Trump.
Yet when it comes to economic matters, all the momentum in the world apparently means nothing. Last month, the ABC/Post/Ipsos poll showed Trump ahead by 10 points among voters who were asked which candidate they trusted more to handle the economy.
