Even if a handful of key states remain uncalled, one candidate may well surface with a clear path to victory if the rest of the electoral map is settled.
With polls showing a dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris entering Election Day, and local election officials cautioning it might take days to complete ballot counts, a conventional wisdom has taken hold: Americans are not likely to know their next president on Nov. 5.
Yet, the biggest surprise of all on election night might be if an apparent winner emerges sooner than expected.
Even if a handful of key states remain uncalled, one candidate may well surface with a clear path to victory if the rest of the electoral map is settled.
And a marginal polling error in the direction of either candidate could result in a clear and definitive Electoral College victory.
Major news organizations will not declare a winner until a candidate is confirmed to have secured 270 Electoral College votes. Laws in two elector-rich swing states — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — do not allow their election officials to begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day, making it highly unlikely their results will be confirmed that evening.
Arizona election officials also expect it will take several days to tabulate their results, with Maricopa County officials pointing to high interest across the state and an especially long, two-page ballot this election cycle.
But results in the remaining swing states — Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada — could still paint an early picture of a likely winner.
Clear-cut Trump victories across these four states alone would be enough to secure him exactly 270 Electoral College votes that night, and victories in three of the four would require Harris to sweep all remaining battleground states in order to squeak out a victory.
On the other hand, victories for Harris in Michigan and Nevada – alongside a surprise win in North Carolina or Georgia, historically conservative states where Harris has consistently trailed in polling averages – would move Harris close to the presidency. She would need to win just one other battleground state to reach 270 and be declared the victor.
“Late-breaking results in American elections often break in the same direction,” said Andrew Rudalevige, a professor of government at Bowdoin College.
“If we saw Trump or Harris winning by much more than the polls had suggested — especially against the grain, however narrow that grain is — I suspect that is a harbinger of other results,” Rudalevige said. “That is, if Harris had a solid win in North Carolina or Trump in Michigan, that’s likely to be a good predictor that their turnout operations and persuasion of late-deciding voters has had an impact likely to be echoed in other close states.”
Four years ago, it took four days for the Associated Press to call the election for Joe Biden due to the COVID-19 pandemic that moved millions to vote early and by mail, altering the counting process in some battleground states.
