Atlantic writers on what comes next for the country, its allies, and the U.S.
This past weekend, Syrian rebels prompted the downfall of a more than 50-year fascist regime. Yesterday, rebels freed detained prisoners; people trampled on burning images of ousted President Bashar al-Assad; families strolled through a ransacked presidential palace, taking pictures. Assad and his family have fled to Moscow, where they have been granted asylum, according to Russian state media. Some Syrian refugees are waiting at border crossings to reenter the country they had fled during the Syrian civil war, which has been ongoing since 2011.
Until now, Syria had been part of “an informal network of autocracies,” my colleague Anne Applebaum wrote yesterday. The downfall of its leader represents the possibility of change, not just in Syria but in the other members of this network. Below are five questions, answered by Atlantic writers, about what comes next for Syria, its allies, and the United States.
Why did the Assad regime fall now, after 54 years?
The Syrian people’s loyalty to Assad eroded gradually, then all at once, Anne explains: Doubts grew after Assad’s Russian backers began to transfer troops and equipment from Syria to Ukraine in 2022, and “the more recent Israeli attack on Hezbollah’s leadership hampered Iran, Assad’s other ally, from helping him as well,” she writes.
Autocratic regimes use brutality to eliminate any hope their populace may have for a different future, Anne notes: “Our leader forever” was the slogan of the Assad dynasty. “But all such ‘eternal’ regimes have one fatal flaw,” she writes. “Soldiers and police officers are members of the public too. They have relatives who suffer, cousins and friends who experience political repression and the effects of economic collapse. They, too, have doubts, and they, too, can become insecure. In Syria, we have just seen the result.”
“The turning point was the surrender of Aleppo with almost no resistance,” Anne told me when we spoke on the phone today. “It was almost like the regime melted away as people saw that no one’s fighting for it, no one’s going to support it. Why should we fight for it?”
What comes next for the Syrian people?
The case for optimism exists, my colleague Graeme Wood noted today: “The recent behavior of the rebels who have just conquered Syria looks reassuringly civilized,” he acknowledges.
