Russia potentially losing bases in Syria would significantly affect Russia’s ability to operate in Africa, said the ISW think tank.
Russia’s operations across Africa are now in jeopardy, compromised by the abrupt collapse of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime with looming questions hanging over the Kremlin about the fate of its military bases in the now rebel-held country.
A coalition of anti-regime rebels, led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, began a lightning push from northwestern Syria at the start of December after years of relatively static fighting.
The fighters quickly seized control of swathes of government-held territory in the northwest, before surging toward the capital and forcing Assad to flee, despite Russian airstrikes in support of the regime.
Rebels appointed Mohammad al-Bashir, who had held office in the rebel-controlled northwestern Syrian city of Idlib, as prime minister until early March.
Russia has deep roots in Syria, particularly through its naval base in Tartus, a port city looking out onto the Mediterranean and its Khmeimim air base just further north. Moscow has wielded its position—particularly in Tartus—to cement its influence out into the Mediterranean, providing a link to the Black Sea while looming over NATO’s southern flank close to Africa.
The fate of these military facilities isn’t clear, although reports suggest Moscow is pulling at least some of its military equipment from western Syria. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency said on Sunday that Russia had pulled a frigate and a cargo ship from Tartus, while «transferring the remnants of their weapons and military equipment from Syria by military aircraft from the Khmeimim air base.
