These 10 U.S. states have relatively weak economies and would not be in the best position to weather a recession.
In trying to attract businesses, states are playing to corporate leaders’ economic anxieties, marketing themselves as safe havens.
Because of that, CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Business rankings give extra weight to state economies in 2025.
The results show that some states are especially vulnerable to a downturn, especially if national economic conditions worsen.
The odds of a recession may be falling, but states appear to be betting that corporate leaders are still nervous.
An analysis of all 50 states’ economic development marketing efforts — part of CNBC’s annual America’s Top States for Business study — finds that a strong economy is the most frequently mentioned selling point to attract corporate site selectors these days. That includes factors like job growth, fiscal stability, and a wealth of other corporate headquarters. State web sites mentioned economic factors 222 times in our analysis, well ahead of the next most cited factor, infrastructure, at 203.
Site selection consultant Tom Stringer, a principal and leader of the site selection and incentives practice at Grassi Advisors in New York, said that emphasis on economic strength and stability stands to reason.
«You want to look for an environment where there is consistency», he said. «That is very important to businesses, because the stability allows you to operate with a degree of certainty, a degree of cost control, and it also talks to the health of the economy.»
Because the Top States overall methodology prioritizes the factors that states are talking about most, the Economy category carries the most weight in this year’s competitiveness study.
To score each state’s economy, we considered traditional measures such as state gross domestic product growth, job growth, state fiscal health, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, and the strength of the local housing market. But with the Trump administration seeking to slash federal spending and raise tariffs, we also considered how dependent each state is on the federal government. And we considered each state’s exposure to a trade war, using data compiled for us by Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington, D.C.-based research firm.
Some states enter these uncertain times in a position of strength. But by the numbers, these ten states are the most vulnerable in a downturn.10. Oregon
The Beaver State’s economy relies heavily on international trade. It makes up nearly one-quarter of the state’s GDP. And nearly 14 percent of that international goods trade is with China, leaving Oregon seriously exposed in a trade war.
«Exports and manufacturing play outsized roles in the state, so trade tensions will be borne disproportionately», said the state’s most recent official revenue forecast, released in May.
That forecast stops short of calling for a recession, but it predicts «near stagnation» of the state’s economy, which was already not going great guns heading into the turmoil. Economic growth last year was among the slowest in the nation.
2025 Economy Score: 198 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D+)
GDP (2024): $265.1 billion (+1.2%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.6%
Debt Rating and Outlook (Moody’s): AA1 Stable
Share of state spending from federal funds: 32%
International goods trade (2024): $61.4 billion (23.2% of GDP)
Major Corporate Headquarters: Nike9. West Virginia
The Mountain State’s economy did show some healthy growth last year, but that may be coming to an end for now, according to Sean O’Leary, senior policy analyst at the West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy. In a blog post in May, O’Leary wrote that federal job cuts are starting to show up in the economy of a state with more than 17,000 federal jobs — about 2.5% of the state’s workforce. Unemployment has fallen in West Virginia, but that has more to do with people leaving the workforce than workers finding jobs. Employment barely grew last year, and jobs have begun to decline in 2025. Meanwhile, deep tax cuts enacted in 2023 with subsequent cuts each year have had a limited impact on growth, O’Leary said, while reducing state revenue.
«As we continue on into the year, the flat job growth, weakening labor force, and proposed federal program changes like cuts to Medicaid should raise concern for policymakers», O’Leary said.
2025 Economy Score: 195 out of 445 Points (Top States Grade: D+)
GDP (2024): $83.7 billion (+3.5%)
Job Growth (2024): 0.
