Trying to make sense of the playoff picture conference by conference with less than a week to go.
Just when you thought the 12-team College Football Playoff was the solution . it might be messier than ever.
Five-loss Duke can win the ACC. Three of the four power conferences will have championship games that feature rematches (and Alabama might have to beat Georgia a second time to stay in the field). If both BYU and Texas Tech are in from the Big 12, someone currently in the top 10 is out.
There also are still plenty of questions: Will the committee do anything with Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin’s departure? Does Miami gain ground on Notre Dame? Which are the true bubble teams?
How the committee votes in Tuesday night’s fifth ranking (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be a strong indicator of how the 12-team field will look on Selection Day, but it’s not the final answer.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good ahead of the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s top 12 projection. Check back following the selection show for an updated version that will reflect the committee’s penultimate ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game — and they’re already in a precarious position. How far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see them drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on their résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough résumé to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
It will be interesting to see if Lane Kiffin’s departure affects the ranking of Ole Miss. CFP protocol states the committee will consider «other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.» Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee surmises the team won’t be the same without him.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns will earn a promotion Tuesday night, but the win against Texas A&M is unlikely to catapult them into the playoff.
