Insights from Jonathan Sullivan.
“One China” is a useful conceit, a nebulous concept that all sides interpret according to their own needs and giving each side space to operate. Trump’s initial indication that the U. S. might challenge or reject “one China” policy was a major shock, not just to Beijing, but to Taipei as well. At the present time, the “one China” framework is the mechanism that allows Taiwan to maintain its functional autonomy and peaceful productive relations with the PRC. Taiwan does not gain anything from disrupting the status quo. The call was an effective way for Taiwan to put itself back on the agenda in Washington (having lost salience under Obama), and a way for Trump to signal that he is going to do things differently vis-à-vis China. But the most sensible thing that the Trump administration has done to date is to reaffirm its commitment to “one China.” Doing so is welcome in Taipei.
Despite the election of Tsai Ing-wen, the level of conflict in cross-Strait relations is stable and manageable, and the last thing Taiwan needs is to become embroiled in a confrontation or a “pawn” in the Trump administration’s plan to re-calibrate Sino-U. S. relations. The Tsai administration has been consistent in its commitment to maintaining the “status quo” (another nebulous concept), avoiding rocking the boat and keeping a low profile. Tsai’s major policy programs are focused on the Taiwanese domestic economy and a raft of social issues, while attempting to quietly reduce dependence on the Chinese economy. The understated approach is Tsai’s calling card, and at a time of uncertainty, the safe strategy. The Trump call was a bold departure, but Tsai was largely praised for taking advantage of an opening to raise Taiwan’s profile with the new U. S. president. Taipei understands that Trump’s volatile and inconsistent preferences require a cautious approach.
Taiwan operates under difficult conditions: its most important economic partner is simultaneously an existential threat to its functional autonomy.
