Домой GRASP/Japan Possible scenarios for next stage of North Korea crisis

Possible scenarios for next stage of North Korea crisis

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WASHINGTON: The crisis over North Korea’s nuclear programme heated further Thursday, with President Donald Trump underscoring his threat to rain «fire and fury» on Kim Jong-Un, saying the stark warning maybe «wasn’t tough enough.» The latest escalation in the…
WASHINGTON: The crisis over North Korea’s nuclear programme heated further Thursday, with President Donald Trump underscoring his threat to rain «fire and fury» on Kim Jong-Un, saying the stark warning maybe «wasn’t tough enough.»
The latest escalation in the long-simmering stand-off has set the world on edge, with stock markets down and jittery observers now openly pondering whether the risk of nuclear conflict is real.
But despite the unpredictable nature of both Kim and Trump, other officials in the US administration have sidestepped the president’s strident rhetoric.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson assured Americans they should not be losing sleep over the crisis, while Pentagon chief Jim Mattis issued a very carefully worded statement that warned North Korea it would be «grossly» outmatched in any conflict.
WAR
Pentagon scenarios for military intervention range from limited surgical strikes on nuclear targets to a preemptive «decapitation» attack to take out Kim or force a popular uprising that would lead to regime change.
But any sort of military action would bring enormous, and unknowable, downsides. Mattis has repeatedly warned of devastating consequences, saying it would be «like nothing we have seen since 1953, » referring to the end of the Korean War.
Kim has amassed artillery units along the border with South Korea, whose capital, Seoul, is only about 55 kilometres away.
Limited shelling and rocket fire would likely lead to mass casualties in the city of 10 million and experts warn that any conflict would quickly escalate, with geopolitical repercussions, upheaval of the global economy and huge death tolls.
Still, when asked on Thursday what could be tougher than «fire and fury, » Trump said: «We’ll see.

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