The window to roll back Pyongyang’s weapons programs has been closed.
BEIJING ― By n ow, North Korea has successfully conducted its sixth nuclear test ― along with a series of intercontinental ballistic missile tests. At this point in time, it is believed to potentially possess the tools to put it in the position of nuclear deterrence ― “the theory that Country X won’t fire nukes at Country Y if Country Y has nukes it can fire back” ― against the United States. As a result, the window of opportunity to roll back North Korean weapons programs has been closed. While the U. S. should perhaps on principle refuse to accept that North Korea is a “ legitimate nuclear weapons state,” it can no longer simply ignore the fact that an increasingly influential nuclear power is out there.
The harsh reality is that the U. S. has no other choice but to accept a nuclear North Korea if it wants to achieve long-term peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula. But before it can move on and ease tensions, it must change its mindset by understanding why there is no other option but to let North Korea go nuclear. Here’s what America needs to come to terms with.
Countries that have voluntarily abandoned nuclear weapons ― such as South Africa, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Belarus ― likely did so because their security environment improved. North Korea is a completely different case. It has developed nuclear weapons in part to deter U. S. aggression. The deployment of U. S. troops and weapons in South Korea and Japan, the regularly held military exercises near the Korean Peninsula and the generally unrivaled power of the U. S. military, have made North Korea seemingly paranoid and all the more inclined to seek nuclear weapons for protection. As long as no true reconciliation exists between the United States and North Korea ― which seems increasingly unlikely given the harsh rhetoric between both powers of late ― the latter will feel threatened. It is thus difficult to imagine that Pyongyang will find it suitable to abandon its nuclear weapons, especially when its security situation is arguably deteriorating as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un engages in a war of words with U. S. President Donald Trump. At this rate, only military strikes can deprive North Korea of nuclear weapons, and even that option is a poor one ― such a measure will be costly and almost surely lead to mass casualties.
North Korean leaders are as rational as their counterparts. Arguments that North Korea is not applicable to the “ classical deterrence theory ” are mainly based on the past aggressive behavior and the authoritarian nature of the regime.
