Of the thirty contingencies included in this year’s Preventive Priorities Survey, renewed tension on the Korean Peninsula following a collapse of the denuclearization negotiations was…
Of the thirty contingencies included in this year’s Preventive Priorities Survey, renewed tension on the Korean Peninsula following a collapse of the denuclearization negotiations was assessed as a top tier priority for the United States in 2019. The contingency was deemed moderately likely to occur and, if it does, will have a high impact on U. S. interests.
Historically, U. S.–North Korea denuclearization negotiations have proceeded haltingly. Efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program have spanned several diplomatic initiatives, including the Six Party Talks between the United States, China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, and South Korea, which started in 2003 and resulted in several attempts at establishing disarmament principles. In 2017, initial interactions between President Donald J. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not look promising for continued diplomatic engagement, as Trump and Kim exchanged bellicose remarks and tweets.
However, in 2018, both Trump and Kim indicated an interest in re-starting negotiation efforts. Following two successful meetings (one in April and one in May) between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim at Panmunjom, Trump met with Kim in Singapore in June to discuss denuclearization on the peninsula—the first time a sitting U.
