Jeremy Corbyn will remain as leader
Jeremy Corbyn started the year in a position that was stronger than it appeared, something the doomed attempt to remove him proved.
Now he looks unassailable, which probably slightly overstates his strength.
Party members are worried by what they see as the party’s right-turn on immigration, and those worries will grow more acute if the pattern of Richmond and Sleaford – where the party suffered an exodus of Leave-backing voters to the right and of Remain-backing voters to the Liberal Democrats – continues in by-elections and elections next year. There is also growing concern about what is seen as the Labour leadership’s frequent silence and inability to make news.
Neither of these worries will cohere into viable opposition to Corbyn, however. It’s easy to imagine a candidate who could displace Corbyn: pro-European, pro-immigration and popular in the country at large. But there lies the problem: no such candidate exists in the parliamentary Labour party. The leadership is Corbyn’s as long as he wants it.
If there is an early election, it won’t be at a time of Theresa May’s choosing
Next year will continue to be marked by questions of an early election. One reason being that the government has been forced to abandon or delay key planks of its agenda already, thanks to its wafer-thin majority – but is also in possession of a double-digit lead in the opinion polls.
An obstacle to such analyses is the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which means that the Prime Minister cannot secure an early election without either a two-thirds majority in the Commons or her government losing a vote of confidence. At that point, if a new government cannot secure a vote of confidence in itself, there is an election.
Theoretically, the government could put forward a motion of confidence and instruct its MPs to abstain and, seeing as it is unlikely that the opposition parties would declare their confidence in May’s leadership, secure an early election that way.
There are some problems with that approach though – as the Institute for Government’s Cath Haddon explains , it’s not at all clear who the Prime Minister would be in the intervening 14 days – would it still be Theresa May? Someone else from within her party? Or Jeremy Corbyn?
All of those ambiguities mean that I think it is highly unlikely that May will call an early election out of choice. But the same arguments for calling one at a time of her choosing are all the arguments that may force her hand. So while I don’t rule out an election next year, if there is one, it will be as much of a shock to May as to everyone else.
Angela Merkel will continue as Chancellor, but her power will be diminished
Angela Merkel’s standing in Britain is odd. In regular times, she’d be seen as a fairly dull centre-right politician. But the leftwing achievements of the SPD, her coalition partner from 2005 to 2009 and again from 2013, mean that she is seen as cuddlier than she is, while her decision to allow a million refugees into Germany has made her a hate figure on the uglier parts of the right.
That means her success in the German elections next year has become a proxy war among Britain’s elites, with the success of the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) a subject for celebration among Britain’s own nativists.
The reality, as I’ve written before, is that what will decide Merkel’s future is how well the parties of the left – the Social Democrats, the leftist Die Linke and the Greens – do. If they can cobble together a working coalition, they will likely force her out. Far more likely – unless Martin Schulz can give the Social Democrats an unexpected boost – is a more fractious repeat of the coalition of left and right that she has run since 2013.
Barring a terrorist attack, Marine Le Pen won’t win
We’ve known since early 2013 that Marine Le Pen, the fascist candidate for the French presidency, had a strong chance of winning the first round of the presidential elections and a puncher’s chance of winning the second. (Under the rules of the French system, unless a candidate secures more than half of the vote in the first round, the top two go through to the run-off.)
But the victories for Donald Trump and Brexit – plus the fact that, as far as Britain’s Brexit deal is concerned, elections on the continent matter to the United Kingdom more than ever – mean that here in Britain, people are waking up to the possibility that Le Pen could be France’s next president.
I’m not convinced that she will. For all the far right is gaining from sharing best practice between its activists, it is losing through the association with extremists abroad. Most of the four million people who voted for Ukip detest Donald Trump, and that goes even more so for the perhaps three to four million voters who didn’t vote Ukip in 2015 but could potentially be persuaded to do so in the future. Don’t forget that allies of Norbert Hofer, the far-right candidate in Austria, believe the association with the anti-EU politics of Nigel Farage hurt their candidate.
The comparison between Le Pen and her cheerleaders abroad risks hurting her. But more important than that is that the victories of Trump and Brexit – and I should emphasise that the differences between Brexit and Trump are more important than the similarities, in my view – both ran with the grain of their respective political cultures. In the case of Vote Leave, euroscepticism is part of the warp and weft of British politics, just as white reactionary politics are part of the story of American politics.
It’s worth noting that while the Brexit vote, Trump’s victory and Matteo Renzi’s defeat in the Italian referendum were cheered by Le Pen, they were all the work of forces that were to her left. One of Vote Leave’s successes was largely in keeping Nigel Farage away from the cameras, Trump hijacked the party of the centre-right (albeit in the disturbingly right-wing context of American politics), and Renzi’s defeat was an alliance of much of the political spectrum against his government and him personally.
Le Pen’s assault on the French presidency has two problems. First, she has not hijacked a centre-right organisation, and she is pushing against, rather than towards, the cultural headwinds of French politics. There is a long tradition of voting against the anti-system parties in French politics, and my expectation is that the left and the centre will lend their votes to keep Le Pen out again in 2017.
If you’ve been struggling to come up with a suitable New Year resolution, may I suggest a determined plan to drink more? That might sound superficially attractive (depending on what kind of New Year you had) but I should make clear from the outset that it’s water, not alcohol, that I have in mind.
Ensuring adequate hydration has certain benefits, medically speaking. A good fluid throughput reduces the chance of urinary tract infection, and helps prevent attacks of gout and kidney stone formation in people prone to these conditions. If we’re short of water, the bowel will reabsorb every last drop from what doctors euphemistically term the “stool”, which can lead to constipation. And our kidneys function best when there is plenty of water around – they respond to dehydration by concentrating urine to conserve body water, but in doing so they can sustain damage through metabolic stress.
Aside from these medical aspects, there may be softer benefits. As the body starts to dehydrate, water within cells is drawn out into the circulation. The resultant cellular water loss can affect function in a variety of tissues. Athletes’ fluid balance has been the subject of extensive research, and even mild levels of dehydration measurably reduce physical performance. Studies of brain function have shown conflicting results, but overall it appears that mild to moderate dehydration impairs concentration and the ability to think through complex tasks. Headache is a common symptom of water depletion and, although it’s not a miracle cure, studies show that the severity and duration of headaches can be reduced by optimising hydration. So frequent swigs from a bottle of water may help ensure we’re in top condition to tackle our day.
Beyond this, water is a critical ally in the fight against the modern plague of obesity. Quenching our thirst with pretty much any other drink freights in energy along with the H2O, adding to our overall calorie load. There is also some suggestion that we readily confuse thirst for hunger. This might sound daft, but both sensations are mediated by the same region of the brain, and our highly adaptable brains rapidly forge associations between behaviours and the biological drives that they satisfy. All foodstuffs contain water, so it has always been possible to ease thirst by eating; but many of the fluids we consume nowadays are highly calorific, so we often sate our hunger by drinking. As a consequence of these crossed wires, we may be taking substantial excess energy into our bodies when all we’re after is some H2O. Anyone wanting to tackle an expanding waistline should respond to apparent hunger pangs with a good drink of water. If twenty minutes later you no longer crave food, then what you were experiencing was thirst.
As we age, our sense of thirst diminishes, and many elderly people completely lose the cues that ordinarily prompt fluid intake. Of itself, this increases susceptibility to urinary tract infection, but dehydration is also a frequent and severe complication of otherwise minor illnesses such as flu or gastroenteritis in this age group. The rapid downward spiral of low blood pressure, kidney failure and mental confusion frequently leads to hospital admission, or even death. We assume that if someone isn’t thirsty then they’re not short of fluids, but the most important advice I give elderly patients is to ensure that they drink regularly, even if they don’t feel like it.
If you are interested in increasing your own daily water intake, get yourself a bottle to refill from the tap, rather than adding to the mountain of plastic waste we produce. How much to drink varies according to individual circumstances, but two litres over 24 hours should be fine – three at a push. The best gauge is your urine colour: pale straw is what you’re looking for. Darker suggests you should drink more, but if you’re constantly peeing stuff that’s as clear as Evian then you’re overdoing it. And with that, I wish you a happy, hydrated new year.

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© Source: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/12/four-predictions-politics-2017
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