China isn’t abandoning North Korea; rather, it wants to reset the relationship on Beijing’s terms.
On January 5,2018, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced its decision to impose a cap on oil supplies to North Korea and ban imports of North Korean steel. Many U. S. policymakers praised these measures as proof that China is moving toward full compliance with United Nations sanctions against North Korea and taking steps to abandon its long-standing alliance with Pyongyang.
Even though China’s relationship with North Korea under Xi Jinping has been fraught with tensions, Beijing’s partial compliance with the UN sanctions regime does not constitute a terminal breach in the China-North Korea relationship. Instead of pressuring North Korea to modify its belligerent conduct, China’s punitive measures against Pyongyang chiefly aim to reassert Beijing’s control over an increasingly unpredictable North Korean regime.
China’s strategy to re-establish its hegemony over North Korea has two main components. The first component is reminding North Korean regime officials of their country’s dependency on China. Even though China accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s external trade, Pyongyang has become increasingly critical of China’s conduct toward North Korea. These criticisms climaxed in May 2017, when North Korea’s state news agency, KCNA, claimed that China’s calls for tighter sanctions against Pyongyang were contributing to heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula.
As a result of its discontent with China, North Korea has pivoted strongly toward Russia as an alternative partner. In February 2017, the North Korean government named Russia as its leading international ally. Russia has also violated UN sanctions against North Korea by supplying vital raw materials to the Kim regime.
Despite the strengthening of Moscow’s ties with Pyongyang, Chinese policymakers believe that Kim Jong-un has overestimated Russia’s willingness to provide economic assistance to North Korea. By imposing economic sanctions on North Korea, China is pressuring Pyongyang to ask Russia for increased financial assistance. If Russia fails to comply with North Korea’s financial aid demands, Kim will need to improve North Korea’s relationship with China on Beijing’s terms to ensure his regime survives.
China’s belief that economic coercion will convince North Korea to settle its disputes with Beijing and become a reliable Chinese client state is rooted in historical experience. During the early 1990s, the China-North Korea alliance experienced a major rupture, after Beijing established formal diplomatic relations with South Korea in 1992.
