Achieving denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is complex and will require significant concessions from all involved
The yet to be confirmed summit between U. S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has raised expectations that a major breakthrough in resolving the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula is within reach.
“It is expected that there will be more rapid progress regarding the freezing and dismantling of the North Korean nuclear programs than in the past, as the leaders of the U. S. and North Korea will meet directly this time,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea analyst at the Sejong Institute in South Korea.
However the process to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is complex and will require significant concessions from all involved.
Deal or no deal
On Saturday, Trump said his meeting could fizzle without an agreement or it could result in „the greatest deal for the world“ with the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
In the short term, Kim could make a seemingly dramatic offer to stop developing its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability that directly threatens the U. S., to extend its unilateral freeze on missile and nuclear tests, and even to reduce over time its stockpile of nuclear material.
It is unclear what concessions the U. S. might offer in return. The Trump administration is wary of providing relief and assistance in exchange for promises, given Pyongyang’s record of reneging on past agreements. Washington would likely demand that international inspectors be given access to verify the freeze and dismantling process, before agreeing to reduce economic sanctions.
But to get a significant deal Trump must offer something significant in return.
“In order to make this whole process successful, for which Donald Trump will be responsible, he would have to provide economic concessions,” said Go Myong-Hyun, a North Korea analyst with the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
No preconditions
Both Pyongyang and Washington have already made significant concessions in moderating their conditions for dialogue.
The Kim government has agreed to suspend all missile and nuclear tests during negotiations and discuss the possibility of giving up its nuclear deterrence if their security concerns are assured. Since November of 2017 North Korea has refrained from provocative actions after a two-year period in which it conducted two nuclear tests and accelerated efforts to develop a nuclear-armed ICBM that can target the U.
