Marc-Andre Fleury has been playing the best hockey of his life – and he’ll need to keep it up for the Golden Knights to make Stanley Cup history.
Here are three headlines written about Marc-Andre Fleury from three straight postseasons.
2012: “Marc-Andre Fleury Is the Worst Goalie in the Postseason.”
2013: “Marc-Andre Fleury, the worst playoff goalie in hockey.”
2014: “Marc-Andre Fleury, playoff disaster, is holding Penguins back from Stanley Cup.”
On Sunday night, Fleury shut out the Sharks in Game 6 to lead the Golden Knights, an NHL expansion franchise, to the conference finals. The goaltender saved all 28 shots that came his way for his fourth shutout of the 2018 postseason. He recorded just five playoff shutouts in the previous six years.
For the Golden Knights, that performance is both their blessing and their curse. Superlative goaltending can carry a team to unmatched heights. It’s the foundation upon which Vegas has blown away expectations for a group of players unappreciated or miscast by their previous teams.
Unfortunately, that fact could also be the thing that takes down the Golden Knights eventually. Fleury, the same guy whose playoff collapses came to define him years ago, will need to keep playing the best hockey of his life to win two more series.
Lots of NHL teams have rode hot goaltending in the playoffs, but Vegas currently has the highest save percentage (.951) of any team in a single postseason since 2010, per Corsica. The highest save percentage by any team to reach the Final in that span is.944 by the 2012 Kings. The 2011 and 2013 Bruins also rode high save percentages to deep playoff runs.
That’s not necessarily a problem in itself. Jonathan Quick and Tim Thomas never let up during postseasons that ended with championships. Most teams that make deep playoff runs are leaning on a high PDO one way or another, whether it’s a high save percentage, high shooting percentage or both. Five of the remaining six teams have PDOs above 101.5 right now (100 is average).
But the Capitals, Jets, Penguins and Lightning are leaning far more on their offenses than stellar goaltending, which can be unpredictable. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, have recorded just 2.6 goals per 60 minutes, the lowest figure of any team to reach the second round. They’re winning largely because of goal prevention, and, specifically, Fleury.
Corsica has a statistic called estimated Fenwick save percentage that uses unblocked shot data to estimate what a team’s save percentage should be. According to those numbers, the Golden Knights’ save percentage is 2.7 percentage points higher than it should be, which is easily the highest difference for any team in the playoffs. For example, the Jets’ save percentage is just 0.58 percentage points higher than expected. The Lightning’s is actually 0.71 points below expectations, which is a credit to their defense.
The Golden Knights are still a very good hockey team. They’ve posted a 51.5 percent Corsi and 53.6 percent expected goal differential at 5-on-5 this postseason. This run to the conference finals wasn’t built entirely on smoke, mirrors and an unsustainably high save percentage.
But they don’t have the star power of the Lightning (Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov), Capitals (Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom), Penguins (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin) or Jets (Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele). Their underlying stats, while good, aren’t quite on the same level as some other contenders.
What they’ve had to stand apart, more than anything, is Fleury.
Five years ago, he was the worst playoff goalie in history. For the Golden Knights to win a Cup, he’ll need to be the best.
