„Say good-bye to the D-advantage in the generic ballot.“
Tom Williams/Getty Images
Democrats confidently predicted that a “blue wave” during the 2018 midterms would help them take control of Congress from Republicans back in January — but it looks like that wave is already drying up.
According to two new polls, Republicans are closing in on their opponents‘ lead in the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they plan to vote for without requiring them to indicate candidates they support.
In April, Reuters showed Democrats with a 13-point lead, but now the outlet reports Republicans have surpassed them by around 1.4 points, with 38.1 percent of responders saying they’d vote for a GOP candidate and 36.7 indicating future support of a Democrat.
“Say good-bye to the D-advantage in the generic ballot,” a polling editor for Reuters tweeted. “Our latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that registered voters as likely to support Republicans as Democrats.”
Say good-bye to the D-advantage in the generic ballot. Our latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that registered voters as likely to support Republicans as Democrats. @ReutersPolitics https://t.co/0ZIVVs6Zqc pic.twitter.com/rLIHL7jPRl
— Chris Kahn (@Cmkahn) May 21,2018
A Real Clear Politics average of five polls reflects similar numbers, showing Democrats with a lead of just 3.4 percentage points over Republicans — down from a 12.9-point lead at the end of 2017.
The lead on the generic ballot for Democrats is now down to just 3.4 points on the RCP average – the smallest of the cycle and down from a 12.9(!) point lead at the end of 2017.
A lot of time until the midterms, but this is a remarkable turnaround for Republicans in 2018. pic.twitter.com/9qhNgaioj2
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) May 24,2018
Even President Donald Trump’s least favorite media outlet, CNN, admitted earlier this month that the “Democrats‘ 2018 advantage is nearly gone.”
While the network still had Democrats in the lead, their edge over Republicans dropped to just 3 points from 18 points back in December. CNN’s results suggested 47 percent of voters would support a Democrat in November while 44 percent would prefer a Republican.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party’s advantage has narrowed as enthusiasm among Republican voters has grown, as 44 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters now say they’re excited about voting — up from 36 percent in March.
Carlin Becker is a Senior Writer at IJR. Previously, she wrote for Rare and Red Alert Politics….
