Control of the House is expected to be determined by a few dozen districts, many of them in the American suburbsDemocrats need a net increase of 23 seats to win back control
The path to power in the House winds through a few dozen districts, many of them suburban, in Tuesday’s election. Republicans defending their majority and Democrats looking to gain 23 seats they would need to win control.
After the first polls close in the eastern United States, the tallies will start revealing clues to where Americans stand in 2018 on immigration, guns, health care, gender equality in the #MeToo era – and who they want representing them in Washington during the next two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Some races to watch for those keeping score, listed in order of poll-closing times:
The ruby-red state known for the Derby and sweet bourbon is hosting one of the most competitive and expensive races in the country. The Lexington-area battle pits third-term Republican lawmaker Andy Barr against Democrat Amy McGrath, a retired US Marine fighter pilot. Trump won the 6th District by more than 15 percentage points in 2016. But with the help of carefully shaped campaign ads that went viral, McGrath holds the edge on campaign fundraising.
Polls in the district close at 6pm EST
Red-hot Georgia is home to a House race that turns on issues of race and gun laws. Republican lawmaker Karen Handel narrowly won her seat in a special election last year that set a record for spending. Now her Democratic challenger is Lucy McBath, a former flight attendant turned gun control activist. McBath’s 17-year-old son, Jordan Davis, was killed by a white man at a service station in 2012 when the black teenager refused to lower the volume on the rap music in his car. The district north of Atlanta leans Republican, but Trump won it by only 1 percentage point.
Polls close at 7pm EST
Lawmaker Dave Brat won his seat after upsetting House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary. Now, it’s Brat’s turn to fight for re-election to the Richmond-area district against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer who is one of a record number of women running for Congress this year.
Polls close at 7pm EST
North Carolina’s 9th District became a key election bellwether when Mark Harris narrowly ousted three-term lawmaker Robert Pittenger in the Republican primary, giving Democrats a wider opening in solidly red territory. Democrats answered with Dan McCready, an Iraq War veteran, solar energy company founder and Harvard Business School graduate. Trump won the district by 12 points and a Democrat hasn’t been elected to represent it since John F. Kennedy was president.
Polls close at 7:30pm EST
It’s a rematch in central Ohio’s 12th District between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor. Balderson won short-term control of the seat in August during a special election after Republican Pat Tiberi retired. Republicans in the district appear divided over the president, making the seat vulnerable to a Democrat who, like O’Connor, has supported some Republican ideas. He’s engaged to a Republican who calls herself a “Dannycrat”.
Polls close at 7:30pm EST
National Republicans and Democrats are pouring major resources into the Miami-area 27th District seat, held since 1989 by retiring Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The Democratic nominee, former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala, has ramped up her Spanish-language advertising and Hillary Clinton campaigned for her. But she’s facing a stiff challenge from her Republican opponent, Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban-American and former broadcast journalist who, unlike Shalala, speaks Spanish. Though Trump won Florida in 2016, Clinton won this congressional district by nearly 20 points.
Polls close at 8pm EST
Along with California and Pennsylvania, suburb-filled New Jersey is a key battleground for House control. Two seats are open, vacated by veteran Republican lawmaker Frank LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, and could fall to the Democrats.
Keep a close eye on the 3rd District south of Trenton, which twice voted for President Barack Obama but went for Trump by about 6 percentage points. Fighting for re-election is Republican lawmaker Tom MacArthur, who helped strike a deal that pushed the Republican Party’s “Obamacare” repeal bill to House passage (it failed in the Senate). His Democratic opponent is political newcomer Andy Kim, a National Security Council staffer under Obama who has worked in Afghanistan.
Polls close 8pm EST
Democrats have particular reason to believe they can flip as many as six seats in the Keystone state. A state Supreme Court decision in January threw out 6-year-old congressional district boundaries as unconstitutionally drawn to benefit Republicans. The replacement districts approved by the court’s Democratic majority have created more competitive contests.
One key race is playing out in the Philadelphia suburbs. Freshman Republican lawmaker Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent, has a centrist voting record and has explicitly tried to put distance between himself and Trump.
He’s facing Scott Wallace, a long-time Democratic Party donor who was co-chairman of the Wallace Global Fund, a Washington, D. C.-based organisation that supports liberal social movements. He’s heavily funding his campaign and outspent Fitzpatrick nearly 5-to-1 in the July-September quarter.
Polls close at 8pm EST
Trump and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi loom large over a race in Northeastern Kansas. That’s where Democrat Paul Davis, the former state House minority leader, and Republican Steve Watkins, an Army veteran and engineer, are battling for the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Rep. Lynn Jenkins. Davis has said he would not support Pelosi for speaker if Democrats win the House. And Republicans were hoping that Trump’s visit to Topeka last month would boost Republican Steve Watkins, who has faced questions over claims he made about his qualifications and background.
Polls close 9pm EST
Four House seats could flip from one party to the other in this traditionally Democratic stronghold.
For evidence of Democratic gains, look to the state’s booming suburbs. Clinton won Minnesota’s 3rd District west of Minneapolis by 9 percentage points. Republican Erik Paulsen is under heavy pressure from Democrat Dean Phillips there. Paulsen avoided Trump’s recent rally in Rochester and his rally this summer in Duluth, and he has said he wrote in Marco Rubio’s name in the 2016 election. Still, Trump endorsed Paulsen last month.
Polls close 9pm EST
The open 2nd District seat left open by Republican Steve Pearce, who is running for governor, offers a look at how the parties fare along the border with Mexico, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. Pearce attracted support from Hispanics and the region’s oil and gas interests. But the race between Democrat Xochitl Torres Small and Republican opponent Yyvette Herrell has focused on hot-button issues such as immigration and guns. Torres Small has raised more than five times the campaign cash drawn by Herrell.
Polls close 9pm EST
This deep-blue state offers a look at how race and Trump’s clout are playing out in the president’s home state.
North of New York City in the 19th District, an ad released last month by the Republican National Congressional Committee showed clips of Democrat Antonio Delgado performing songs from his 2006 rap album under his stage name, A. D. The Voice. Delgado, a Rhodes scholar and Harvard Law School graduate, said his opponent, lawmaker John Faso, was using racial attacks to alienate him, a black first-time candidate in a district that is more than 90 per cent white.
