Young quarterbacks bring a bigger variance to the way an offense plays. That’s why starting nine-year veteran Chase Daniel gives the Bears a better chance of avoiding an upset.
ALLEN PARK — The Lions have had to play the waiting game this week, gauging the practice sessions until they could get a sense for which Bears quarterback they’d face on Thanksgiving at Ford Field.
It turns out it will be Chase Daniel. Mitchell Trubisky missed the full practice week with a shoulder injury sustained Sunday night and is listed as doubtful, which is NFL lingo for out.
That means Chicago will turn to a backup with three pass attempts the past four years. Daniel has played nine seasons since coming out of Missouri and with $28 million in career earnings, he’s the highly valued backup who never has to play.
But now he does, on a short week and on the road in Detroit. It would seem to be a major advantage for the Lions, who are the worse team trying to make up ground in various matchups. I’m not so sure it is.
Trubisky has certainly played a role in Chicago’s 7-3 and first-place start, throwing 20 touchdowns in 10 games while leading all quarterbacks with 363 rushing yards. He’s been better than most could have imagined for a second-year quarterback in a new scheme, and that expectation can distort the effect of what it actually means.
Trubisky is a long play for the Bears. In his second season, in a new scheme, that comes with ups and downs. He can throw six touchdowns against the Buccaneers and then manage just 165 yards against the Vikings. He brings a bigger variance to the Bears offense, and the higher the variance, the better the chance for an outlier result like an upset loss to an inferior opponent.
At 4-6, the Lions are an inferior opponent. That much was clear when they lost 34-22 in Chicago 12 days ago in a game they trailed 26-0. Take Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson out of their offense, and sub Darius Slay back into their defense, and they are still a worse team at about three-quarters of the positions.
And so Trubisky’s absence might limit the Bears playbook and the risks they take on offense, but that’s going to work out even better for Chicago. Bad Trubisky gets wild with the ball; he’s thrown nine interceptions and fumbled four times in 10 games. Coaches preach turnover margin so much because those are the plays that flip results away from what the numbers say should happen.
Daniel knows the Nagy offense better than Trubisky does. He played three years as Alex Smith’s backup in Kansas City and spent a year in a similar offense in Philadelphia. He’s helped teach the playbook to Chicago’s young scrambler.
He won’t have all the timing down with the receivers, but everything about Chicago’s passing attack has been new and thrown together this year. Top receiver Allen Robinson had barely played in the three games before he came out against Detroit and shredded the Lions for 133 yards and two touchdowns.
Slay’s return will help in covering Robinson, of course. It would have with Trubisky out there as well. But Slay is one man, and Chicago has receivers Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller as well as tight end Trey Burton and running back Tarik Cohen. Nagy’s offense is built on a variety of route concepts creating mismatches for a certain skill set against a lacking defender. Detroit will have plenty of lacking defenders on the field, and so the key is a quarterback who can locate the weak spot.
Daniel is more capable at that right now than is Trubisky, who bailed on too many clean pockets too early the last time these teams played. That’s the happy-feet nature of a young quarterback less used to working progressions than ninth-year veterans are.
Daniel lacks the ability to rip off a long gain with his legs, but Jarrad Davis already takes that advantage away from mobile quarterbacks. Trubisky, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson combined for 35 rushing yards against Detroit. But clean pockets are still the regular against Detroit’s gap-control front seven.
Daniel isn’t going to light up the scoreboard in Detroit. It’s likely to be a defensive game between two short-handed offenses on a short week. If one of these teams is more likely to win in a defensive game, though, it’s the team that ranks in the top five in points, yards and efficiency, and that’s the defense with Khalil Mack on it.
The Bears would prefer to play with Trubisky, to keep the progression going in a strong season, but they can also replace him far better than the Lions can replace Johnson. That’s why I’m picking a 16-9 Bears victory.
