Could Bradley Cooper and Alfonso Cuarón be the most-nominated men? Will ‘Black Panther’ make the best picture field? A look at possible records and upsets.
Before dawn on Tuesday morning in Los Angeles, Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross will gather to read this year’s Oscar nominees in 24 categories.
But why wait until then to discuss what may go down? As your Carpetbagger, I’ve been studying the race for months and flagging several developments to look for. Who might make Oscar history, and how should we read some of these tea leaves?
Here are six pressing award-season questions that will soon be answered.
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations?
Bradley Cooper’s “A Star Is Born” has received across-the-board recognition from every major Hollywood guild it was eligible for, suggesting that on Tuesday morning, it will be our nomination leader. Oscar nominations for picture, director, actor (Cooper), actress (Lady Gaga), song, cinematography, editing and sound mixing are all but assured. Less certain but still likely are nominations for supporting actor (Sam Elliott) and adapted screenplay.
If “A Star Is Born” nabs every single one of those, it will lead the field with 10 nominations, but if it misses one or two, there are several other films that could tie it or even outright claim the title of nomination leader. Among them are “Roma,” “The Favourite,” “First Man,” “Vice” and “Black Panther.”
Can “Green Book” continue its momentum?
After taking the Golden Globe for best comedy or musical and adding the top prize from the Producers Guild of America over the weekend, “Green Book” could be considered our best-picture front-runner. After all, there have been only two times since the academy expanded its best-picture field that the Oscars and the producers guild have differed on their ultimate victor. The PGA also has a membership similar in size to the academy’s and uses the same sort of preferential ballot when voting.
Still, the academy has taken great pains to diversify its ranks over recent years, and I wonder if this increasingly international, female membership will be as enamored of “Green Book” as the producers guild was. We’ll have a good idea of how far it can go if “Green Book” pulls off some on-the-bubble nominations like best editing, best director and best supporting actress for Linda Cardellini.
Who takes the fifth best actress slot?
Four women have made pretty much every best actress lineup so far: Glenn Close for “The Wife,” Lady Gaga for “A Star Is Born,” Olivia Colman for “The Favourite” and Melissa McCarthy for “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” Barring a shock that would be among Tuesday’s biggest snubs, expect all four to receive Oscar nominations.
