Disney’s decision to launch ‚Mulan‘ as a premium video on demand may prove to be more profitable than a theatrical release even in normal times. This changes everything.
Disne DIS y announced during the Q3 conference call on August 4 that the live-action Mulan will go directly to Disney+ as a premium video on-demand (PVOD) in select markets, most notably the U. S. and Canada. The company will charge a rental fee of $29.99. In markets where cinemas are open and there is no real presence of Disney+, the company will launch the film in theaters. Disney is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. While the company’s intention was to give Mulan a full theatrical push, there was no clear idea on when COVID-19 would subside enough to allow a critical mass of theaters to open worldwide. In the meantime, financial pressures kept mounting as the company faces large revenue declines from the legacy businesses: theme parks, cruise lines, studio entertainment and media networks (see earlier article). But how much does Disney stand to lose or gain from forgoing a theatrical debut and going to PVOD? The answer is messy and uncertain, yet there’s evidence that Disney could be in for a bigger payday with PVOD than it would have with a theatrical launch. Let’s start with what Mulan might have made in a normal environment without the coronavirus. For a comparable, the live action version of Beauty and the Beast did $1.26 billion at the box office in 2017. In early March, Mulan was tracking to have a domestic opening weekend of about $90 million which would have been about 51% of Beauty’s domestic opening weekend of $175 million. But we also know that Mulan’s animated 1998 version did $304 million worldwide over its entire run which was 69% of what the 1991 animated version of Beauty and the Beast achieved worldwide over its entire run – $440 million. So, let’s give live-action Mulan the benefit of the doubt and say it does 69% as well as live-action Beauty. That brings the potential worldwide box office for a live-action Mulan to $869 million (69% of $1.
