First, recognize the real motivations behind the cycle of crisis and carnage.
Familiarity breeds fecklessness. For much of the international community, the fourth Gaza war between Israel and Hamas has been an occasion for the shaking of heads and the wringing of hands. The cease-fire, when it comes, will be an opportunity to disengage — until the next time rockets and missiles fly. And of course, everyone knows there will be a next time. This world-weariness stems from a lack of understanding of the motivations of the belligerents. There is a tendency to take their explanations at face value. Israel claims to be protecting itself from a dangerous terrorist group. Hamas claims to be defending the rights and dignity of Palestinians. Each side says the other gives it no choice but to resort to arms. These are excuses, not explanations. Any serious international effort to break the cycle of crisis and carnage—and to prevent a fifth Gaza war — must start with a clear-eyed understanding of the real aims that drive the conflict on both sides. Sworn enemies they might be, but Israel and Hamas actively collaborate in perpetuating the cycle; they have never made serious efforts to end it. This is because each has important interests that are served by the status quo. For Israel, the spasms of violence are tolerable because they facilitate settlement and gradual de-facto annexation in the West Bank. Hamas rule in Gaza bolsters Israel’s claim that it has no partner in peace because the Palestinians are divided, and that a significant part of their political leadership is a hostile terrorist organization. The Israeli settlement project is framed as a form of forward defense against an implacable enemy. For Hamas, occasional war with Israel is a means to a narrow political end: to unseat Fatah and take control over all Palestinian self-ruled areas.
