ANALYSIS
Russia may have proven itself to be less of a great power and more of a loose cannon.
Six weeks into Moscow ‘s …
ANALYSIS Russia may have proven itself to be less of a great power and more of a loose cannon. Six weeks into Moscow ‘s invasion of Ukraine and on the heels of a stunning loss in the battle for Kyiv, the overall competency of Russia ‘s military is suddenly in doubt and its perceived spot near the top of the 21st-century global pecking order is being reassessed. Russian President Vladimir Putin faces even deeper, more fundamental questions as well, including doubts about whether his country’s hybrid war doctrine and vaunted disinformation campaigns are truly as devastating as the West feared, and whether the apparent lack of morale among his troops will dramatically limit any Russian effort to project military power beyond its borders in the future. Unable to capture Ukraine ‘s capital and having failed spectacularly in its mission to psychologically break the Ukrainian people, Moscow has resorted to the apparent murder of civilians and the wholesale destruction of cities. Mr. Putin and his deputies also have made thinly veiled references to the nation’s nuclear stockpile, which is the largest on earth and a key factor in the U.S. and its NATO allies opting against direct intervention in the war. But Russia ‘s failures in traditional wartime domains, combined with its scorched-earth tactics and nuclear saber-rattling, may have revealed a country that is even more dangerous than previously thought. Western defense and national security specialists are grappling with high-stakes questions about whether Russian leadership, having already abandoned its goal of capturing Kyiv, could take more drastic action, including the possible use of a tactical nuclear bomb or a strike on NATO territory. Mr. Putin ‘s apparent disregard for the lives of civilians adds even more urgency to those questions, which are especially prevalent in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. Inside Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, longstanding fears about a Russian attack haven’t melted away simply because of Ukraine ‘s unexpected success in fending off the invaders. “They’ve got a bear that is out of control and could come lumbering into the backyard any day. And he [Mr. Putin] will be a problem if he comes lumbering in,” said Jim Townsend, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy during the Obama administration.
