How Democrats let blue states become GOP targets in the midterms.
If Republicans have a good night on Tuesday and win a big majority in the House of Representatives, their gains won’t necessarily come from the swing districts that have been perennial battlegrounds in recent elections. Instead, much of a “red wave” could come from blue states, with Republicans poised to pick up multiple seats in states like Oregon and New York, while Democrats in states that are less favorable political terrain might hold on.
It’s a surprising turn of events that’s largely rooted in self-inflicted injuries. The 2020 census meant this election cycle was the first with new congressional maps, and while Republicans were able to successfully gerrymander many of the states they controlled to their advantage, Democrats mostly failed to do the same.
Similarly, Democrats thought focusing on abortion rights would pay off in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in June reversing Roe v. Wade, particularly after they won special elections in upstate New York and Alaska. However, in states where abortion rights are protected under state law, the issue hasn’t resonated with voters. Instead, Democrats have suffered as Republicans focused on issues like the economy and crime.
Finally, the party is losing a number of lawmakers due to attrition. That’s not anyone’s fault, really — incumbents leave Congress every cycle for a variety of reasons. Some reasons are political: they run for higher office or lose their primaries. Others are personal: they want to make money in the private sector or are sick of being an elected official. But first-time candidates always start at a disadvantage. This year, 19 open seats are considered competitive, and a majority of them were previously held by Democrats.
All that is adding up to a difficult cycle for Democrats. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated 10 seats currently held by the party as leaning or likely Republican (and the GOP needs to net only five for control of the House). Redistricting didn’t go Democrats’ way — and that’s partly their fault
Willie Sutton famously said he robbed banks because “that’s where the money is.” Blue states are where the swing districts are this cycle.
A large part of that is because districts in many of these states are not gerrymandered. While many Democrats have been vocal supporters of redistricting reform — particularly after Republicans used gerrymandered maps in states like Pennsylvania and Texas to cement their control of Congress in the 2010s — it’s led to them being politically disadvantaged in some states, with independent commissions drawing maps in states like Colorado, where Democrats control the governor’s mansion and both chambers of the state house.
