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Earlier today, I looked at some recent polling showing that many Americans aren’t all that impressed with the criminal trials that Donald Trump is facing and how they are being handled. Whether or not they impact his day-to-day approval numbers probably doesn’t matter all that much. But what about the long view as we move toward the general elections in November? Will anyone remember? More to the point, will this trial in New York sway anyone either toward or against the former president? This is really the only trial we’ll need to deal with because it’s the only one that’s currently expected to take place and reach a resolution prior to the election. While considering the question, I came across two opinion pieces on the subject from a couple of smart people, both writing at National Review. One is our former colleague Noah Rothman, who opines that Trump’s trial will certainly matter.
It may be safe to attribute some of these responses to social-desirability bias. Most well-adjusted voters will experience at least a little discomfort when confessing their intent to elevate a convicted felon to the presidency. But we cannot chalk all these responses up to dishonesty. Surely, some of these voters really mean it. But persuasibility works both ways. If the Manhattan prosecutors cannot prove to a jury’s satisfaction the crime that Trump’s misdemeanor falsification of business records was allegedly designed to further, uncommitted voters who are already inclined to mistrust Trump’s prosecutors will be rightly convinced of the wisdom of their suspicion. At that point, those voters will be persuadable no more — they will have been persuaded.
An at least partially opposing view comes to us from Jim Geraghty. Jim argues that for the vast majority of voters, we’ve seen this movie before. Nothing that’s going on today or even being alleged in court is really „new news.“ And few are likely to have their minds changed by anything that Alvin Bragg’s team says or does.
For those who don’t like Trump, those past allegations against him — and his frequent out-of-court settlements — are just more pieces on the mountain of evidence that he is a shady operator, quick to break promises or screw over business partners, and only out for himself.
