Russia’s Reckless Provocation
Whether by accident or malice, the Russians are risking a wider war in Europe.
Overnight, NATO fired shots against multiple Russian weapons that violated the alliance’s airspace. According to Polish authorities, at least 19 Russian drones crossed into Poland last night, prompting a response from Polish and Dutch jets backed by support units from Germany and Italy. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told his Parliament it was “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two.” (He added, hopefully, that he had “no reason to believe we’re on the brink of war.”)
When the first reports arrived last night about a handful of drones crossing into Poland, the incursion looked like a possible Russian error, a small number of off-course units from a massive salvo of more than 400 drones sent against Ukraine. The air over Ukraine is full of hazards, and Ukrainian and Russian electronic warfare can send unmanned vehicles spiraling away from their intended targets. For the first time, however, some of these drones crossed into Poland from Belarus; Minsk says these were errant units affected by jamming and that Belarus itself shot some of them down (but without saying who owned them). However, at least one senior Polish general believes that the drone attack was a joint Russian-Belarusan operation.
A few drones, or even six or seven, are one thing. Nineteen spread across much of eastern Poland is a different matter entirely. As Ian Fleming’s notorious villain Goldfinger said to James Bond after repeatedly finding 007 meddling in his affairs: “Mr. Bond, they have a saying in Chicago: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.”
It’s too early to reach a definitive conclusion on Russian motives last night. Whether by accident or malice, the Russians are risking a wider war in Europe. The only path to reducing such a threat is for Moscow to call off its campaign of butchery in Ukraine, and only the Americans can bring enough diplomatic, financial, and military power to bear to convince the Kremlin that it can never win this war.
Unfortunately, the Americans are AWOL. Whatever Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin in Alaska clearly didn’t matter. (More likely, to judge from events since the Anchorage embarrassment, Putin did the talking, warned Trump to get out of his way, and then boarded his plane, leaving Trump with egg on his face and a lot of steak and halibut that no one ate.) Since then, the American defense establishment has been busy: The White House and the Pentagon have been fixated on insulting Tom Hanks, blowing up a Venezuelan speedboat, and helping Secretary of Whatever Pete Hegseth change the signs on his office.
While Washington bumbles about, however, America’s allies are facing genuine danger from Russia’s weapons, and they are reaching worrisome conclusions. The Poles see last night’s drone incursion as an intentional attack. The Germans see it as a major provocation, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today warned Russia: “Stop violating Allied airspace. And know that we stand ready, that we are vigilant, and that we will defend every inch of NATO territory.” The Poles may be right that this violation of their territory was intentional, though if it was an accident, it would only show that the Russians have become even more reckless, and that the Kremlin simply doesn’t care if its military operations trigger a conflagration. Obviously, Russia is not raising the curtain on World War III with fewer than two dozen drones. But the willful violation of Polish airspace suggests that Putin is testing NATO, and probing the steadiness of the West’s nerves—and America’s resolve—as he escalates his attacks on Ukraine.
The Russians, for their part, have already issued a classic non-denial denial. A Russian diplomat in Warsaw said that Poland had offered no proof that the drones belonged to Moscow—a creative explanation, to say the least, and one undermined by a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry that “targets for destruction in Poland were not planned.” (“Not planned,” of course, does not mean “we didn’t do it.”) The Russians said they are “ready to hold consultations with the Polish Ministry of Defence on this issue,” which also makes little sense if the drones didn’t belong to them.
Today, Poland exercised its rights under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which allows any member of the alliance to call a meeting “whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.” That’s a major step: It means that 32 countries, representing the most powerful military organization on Earth, including three nuclear-armed nations, were summoned to discuss what happened last night. (It is, however, a far less drastic move than invoking Article 5, which would require a unanimous finding from NATO that one of their members, and therefore all of its members, has been attacked.)
Read: Russia is losing the war—just not to Ukraine
Hypothetically, the United States of America is the leader of this alliance. Here is the latest statement from President Trump on last night’s events:
“What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
“Here we go?” Here we go where? A president who understands his responsibilities as the leader of the free world would normally, at such a moment of crisis, confer with the leaders of other nations, convene his advisers, and issue a statement that reaffirms America’s willingness to defend its allies. Instead, Trump sent out a post on his Truth Social site that sounded like that of a flailing stand-up comic: Russia violates Poland’s airspace? What’s up with THAT, folks? So far, the White House has said only that Trump will consult today with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, which is the least he can do almost a full day after the first time in its history that NATO engaged hostile targets over the alliance’s own territory.
Many Americans seem to have forgotten that a major war is raging in Europe—the largest since the great struggle between the Allies and the Axis powers. Last night, that war came closer to America and its allies. The president and his coterie may think this is a game, or just another problem that Trump can solve by talking to people on the phone. But this is a deadly serious business, far beyond the capabilities of former talk-show hosts or a gaggle of oddball conspiracy theorists. Russia’s dictator is courting disaster, and the safety of Europe—and the world—is at stake. When will the United States and its president finally stand up to Putin?
