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Asia Unbound North Korea: Four Hard Questions for the Trump Administration

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NewsHubSungtae (Jacky) Park is research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations.
On January 2, President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that a nuclear North Korea capable of hitting parts of the United States “ won’t happen .” Yet, North Korea has been advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities at an alarming pace, and he will not be the first president to face the North Korean threat. George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all attempted but failed to address the issue. Trump cannot continue the current path and expect different results. But, before looking for a different path, the new administration first should ask a number of hard questions that might better shed light on the nature of the problem and the decisions that could or should be made.
Read in The Diplomat about the four hard questions that should be asked…

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China Warns Donald Trump Not to ‘Escalate’ North Korea Situation With Erratic Tweets

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NewsHubChina has hit back at Donald Trump’s claim that Beijing isn’t doing enough to rein in rogue state North Korea, cautioning the U. S. President-elect not to “escalate” an already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula through his liberal use of social media.
On Monday evening, Trump took to Twitter to deny North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s claim that his nation was in the “final stage” of developing a nuclear-armed ballistic missile capable of hitting the U. S. mainland. Trump then followed up with another tweet to say China wasn’t doing enough to temper the young despot’s belligerence.
“China has been taking out massive amounts of money & wealth from the U. S. in totally one-sided trade, but won’t help with North Korea. Nice!” read the tweet.
In response, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a press briefing on Tuesday that his government’s efforts were “widely recognized,” and that “we hope all sides will avoid remarks and actions to escalate the situation.”
The Korean Peninsula is the latest source of friction between the incoming Trump Administration and China to be aired via the President-elect’s Twitter account.
Last month, Trump revealed he accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in a breach of almost four decades of diplomatic protocol. Beijing still claims sovereignty over the self-governing island despite its effective split from the mainland in 1949 following China’s civil war.
Trump has also frequently used Twitter to accuse China of underhand trade practices like currency manipulation that he claims have forced American jobs oversees. The real estate mogul has nominated at least two hard-line China trade critics — Robert Lighthizer and Peter Navarro — to top posts in his Administration.
Regarding North Korea, Trump has a point: China is Pyongyang’s only friendly nation of note and accounts for 90% of its trade. The continued existence of North Korea is of strategic advantage to Beijing if the alternative is a unified Korean Peninsula administered by Seoul that is a staunch U. S. ally.
However, a belligerent, nuclear-armed North Korea isn’t in Beijing’s interests. This raises the temperature in East Asia and prompted South Korea to accept deployment of American THAAD antimissile batteries. Japan may soon follow.
“China’s relations with North Korea are complex and difficult,” writes Evans J. R. Revere in a report for the Brookings Institution in October. “But Beijing’s bottom line is that it is better to keep a troublesome North Korean ally afloat than to risk what might result if we push Pyongyang too hard.”
Nevertheless, in a bid to temper Kim’s aggression Beijing signed up to unprecedented U. N. sanctions in March following Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test. North Korean exports of coal and minerals have dropped as a result, though a fifth nuclear and several missile tests still followed.
According to a U. S.-Korea Institute report last year, “China’s cooperation [is] essential but with increasing tensions in the South China Sea, the U. S. rebalance to Asia, and South Korea’s decision to deploy THAAD, this can no longer be taken for granted.”
To truly bridle the Kim regime, the incoming U. S. President will have to work hard to assure Beijing that its strategic interests are not compromised by coming down tougher on North Korea. The question is: Does Trump’s baiting of China on Twitter render a difficult sell now impossible?

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Trump to choose Hagerty as the next US ambassador to Japan – source

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NewsHubWASHINGTON: U. S. President-elect Donald Trump plans to pick William Hagerty as the next U. S. ambassador to Japan, an adviser to Trump’s transition team told Reuters on Wednesday.
Japan’s Nikkei news service reported earlier that Trump would announce the choice of Hagerty soon. The adviser who spoke to Reuters confirmed the Nikkei report. He spoke on condition of anonymity.

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Chauncey Trump

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NewsHubThis morning President-Elect Trump is out with an ambiguous and possibly meaningless (it’s sort of like Being There) series of tweets warning Republicans to „be careful“ and make sure that Democrats „own“ the „ObamaCare disaster. “ But the truth is, while the ACA has real problems, it had its best year of sign ups to date. It is demonstrably not failing and not a disaster. Indeed, it’s gotten marginally more popular over the last few months, though that is likely because Republicans are now less invested in reflexively opposing it. The real bottom line number is that the latest polls show that only about a quarter of Americans want Obamacare repealed. A quarter!
The gist of what Republicans are saying this morning – both Trump and the GOP – is that they need to remind Americans how awful the ACA is so they’ll have some way to explain, to justify why they’re taking health care coverage from 20 to 25 million Americans, to have some explanation for the s%$&storm they’re about the fly the country’s health care system into. Again, there are definitely problems. There are lots of ACA markets with too little competition and thus spiking prices. But the ’solution‘ is simply to take away care altogether.
They simply have no idea what to do and now they’re being taunted by Trump not to blow and he doesn’t have any idea either. It would be funny if millions of people’s lives and well being weren’t on the line.

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Praying for prosperity ‹ Japan Today

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NewsHubPeople offer prayers on the first business day of the year Wednesday at Tokyo’s Kanda Myojin shrine, which is known to be frequented by worshippers seeking good luck and prosperous businesses.

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Nikkei hits 13-month high ‹ Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion

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NewsHubTOKYO —
Japan’s Nikkei share average started 2017 trading on a strong note on Wednesday as investors cheered upbeat global economic data released during Japan’s holidays, and a weaker yen boosted exporters.
The Nikkei rose 2.5 percent to 19.594.16, making the biggest gains in about two months and closing at its highest level since early December 2015.
The broader Topix gained 2.4 percent to 1,554.48, also its highest finish in over a year, led by gains in shippers, steelmakers and exporters.
Advancers outnumbered decliners by more than 15-to-1.
Toshiba, the most traded stock on the main board by turnover, ended down 2 percent following volatile trade after a media report said the security watchdog suspects the Japanese conglomerate of misreporting profits.
(c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2017.

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Asian markets in the green; Nikkei up 1.7% as the yen weakens

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NewsHubJapanese shares up more than 1 percent on Wednesday morning as the yen weakened against a stronger dollar, and after a private survey suggested the manufacturing sector might be recovering.
Earlier, Toshiba plunged as low as 6.9 percent to 263.5 yen each share at the open, after media reports that a Japan watchdog suspects the company padded profits by 40 billion yen in the past three years, Reuters reported.
Shares of the Japanese conglomerate recovered from earlier losses to trade up 1.1 percent at 279.5 yen by 9:00 am HK/SIN. The stock has fallen nearly 37 percent or 19.6 yen each since last Dec. 26.
The final Nikkei Japan manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 52.4 in December, beating a preliminary reading of 51.9 and November’s 51.3. A figure above 50 represents expansion in a sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The private survey indicates Japan’s manufacturing sector is seeing signs of recovery, with increase domestic and global demand.
Australia’s ASX 200 wavered between negative and positive for most of the morning session, and last traded up 0.1 percent.
South Korea’s Kospi was nearly flat, up 0.02 percent, after South Korea’s finance minister said the economy’s recovery momentum will likely slow this year, and its time for fiscal policy to play a more active role to boost growth, Reuters reported.
The country is also in the midst of a months-long political scandal, with President Park Geun-hye refusing to testify on Tuesday in the impeachment trial that is set to determine her future, after denying charges of wrongdoing over the weekend.
On the economic data watch, India’s Nikkei Services PMI for December is due while in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Thailand will announce respective inflation data for the previous month.
Over in the U. S., the Dow Jones industrial average closed up 0.6 percent at 19,881.76, the S&P 500 finished up 0.85 percent at 2,257.83 and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.37 percent, to close at 5,429.08.
The greenback surged to a 14-year high, up 0.7 percent in the first two trading days of 2017, and supported by a strong read on the ISM manufacturing, which was up 54.7 in December at its highest level in two years.
On Tuesday, the Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1, its strongest reading since June 2014, and a jump from 53.6 in November. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI also came in stronger than expected, at 51.9 in December, its best since January 2013.
The dollar index was trading at 103.23 as of 9:00 am HK/SIN, compared to Tuesday’s levels around 102. Against the greenback, the yen continued to weaken for the fifth straight session, at 117.91, while the Australian dollar was tracking $0.7224.
U. S. crude was up 0.57 percent to $52.33 per barrel in early Asian trade, while global benchmark Brent fell 2.4 percent to settle at $55.47 a barrel in the U. S. on Tuesday.
Oil prices dropped more than 2 percent on Tuesday in the U. S. as the dollar surged to a 14-year high. A stronger dollar may weigh on commodities, which are dollar-denominated, making it more expensive in other currencies.

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Japan stocks soar as Asian markets post gains

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NewsHubJapanese equities kicked off the new year sharply higher on Wednesday, leading the region’s gains amid a robust outlook for the U. S. economy, coupled with expectations of continued yen weakness.
“Today was the first day of trade in Japan and market participants are reacting to the good news over the global economy,” said analyst Masashi Murata, who covers regional and emerging markets for Brown Brothers Harriman.
The outlook for the global economy is strong with inflation picking up in the U. S. and Europe, he said.
Overnight, the U. S. dollar gained to a 14-year high, boosted by data that underscored the strength in the nation’s economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, released Tuesday, rose to its highest level in two years. The news pushed the WSJ Dollar Index up 0.3% to its highest level since mid-2002.
In Asian trade Wednesday, the index narrowed its gains and was last up 0.1%. Still, the dollar-yen pair rose 0.2% on Wednesday, with a weaker yen making Japanese exports more competitive.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, a key measure of manufacturing activity, rose to 52.4 in December from 51.3 in November, the highest reading since December 2015. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The U. S. dollar has been gaining strength on expectations that the U. S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further to counter inflation. The concerns over inflation come as President-elect Donald Trump is widely expected to unveil a fiscal stimulus package to boost the economy.
“Trade is very much focused on the dollar versus the yen and the euro,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “If the dollar is stronger then there is very much a risk on trade.”
Crude oil also recovered with prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rising 0.5% to $55.72 a barrel early Wednesday, recovering from overnight declines.
Oil futures had fallen on Tuesday in the U. S. over doubts as to whether major producers will be able to follow through on an agreement to cut production.

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Don't Repeal Obamacare Without Clear Replacement

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NewsHub„[W]e believe that before any action is taken through reconciliation or other means that would potentially alter coverage, policymakers should lay out for the American people, in reasonable detail, what will replace current policies. Patients and other stakeholders should be able to clearly compare current policy to new proposals so they can make informed decisions about whether it represents a step forward in the ongoing process of health reform,“ James L. Madara, the CEO of the AMA wrote in the letter.
House Republicans on Tuesday made two procedural moves to help carve a path for Congress to repeal Obamacare through reconciliation.
In the Tuesday letter, Madara noted that the AMA supported Obamacare and that the group now supports changes to law, which Madara described as „imperfect. “ He emphasized that any changes must make health care more affordable and increase coverage.
„As such, we welcome proposals, consistent with the policies of our House of Delegates, to make coverage more affordable, provide greater choice, and increase the number of those insured,“ he wrote. „In considering opportunities to make coverage more affordable and accessible to all Americans, it is essential that gains in the number of Americans with health insurance coverage be maintained. „

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Natural disasters caused $175 billion in damage in 2016

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NewsHubThese disasters helped push the total damage caused by natural catastrophes to $175 billion in 2016, according to the German reinsurance firm Munich RE.
The global cost was the highest in four years. Only 30% of the losses — $50 billion — were insured, according to Munich RE.
The costliest disasters were in Asia. Two earthquakes in Japan combined to produce $31 billion in losses, while floods that struck China during the summer caused $20 billion in damage.
In North America, the costliest single event was Hurricane Matthew, which killed hundreds of people in Haiti and produced $10 billion in damage.
But the continent was hit by a total of 160 disaster events in 2016, which is more than any year since 1980.
The weather catastrophes of 2016 show the potential effects of unchecked climate change, said Peter Höppe, head of Munich RE’s Geo Risks Research Unit.
„There are now many indications that certain events — such as persistent weather systems or storms bringing torrential rain and hail — are more likely to occur in certain regions as a result of climate change,“ he said.
The insurer said that 8,700 people were killed by natural disasters in 2016. That’s down from 25,400 in 2015.

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