SINGAPORE: It is often said among China-watching circles that the most politically-sensitive issues of Beijing can be summed up in four Ts: Taiwan, Tibet, Tiananmen and East Turkestan, the separatist name preferred for Xinjiang.
As the new year begins, a new set of five Ts can also be useful markers to look ahead to 2017 in China.
Even before Mr Trump assumes the presidency on Jan 20, he had drawn the ire of China by taking a call from Taiwan Presiden Tsai Ing-wen and openly mocked the “One China” principle.
And let’s not forget the American leader had repeatedly blamed climate change on China during the hustings and threatened to slap tariffs of up to 45 per cent on Chinese imports.
It is safe to say the 83 per cent Chinese surveyed who felt he was morally fit to be president might be having second thoughts now.
The unpredictability of Mr Trump’s administration will flummox and frustrate Beijing’s leaders, diplomats and military for much of 2017.
She showed it in the last seven months, steadfastly refusing to acknowledge the 1992 Consensus, a tacit agreement that the mainland has insisted to indicate fealty to “One China”.
And by successfully placing the call to Mr Trump, she displayed an audacity and creativity which must worry the mainland.
In return, the retaliation from Beijing has been swift. China refrained from courting Taiwan’s diplomatic partners during the eight-year term of Mr Ma.
But the mainland formally established ties with Gambia in March and San Tome and Principe in December. Taiwan now has only 21 diplomatic partners.
The international space of Taiwan will continue to shrink in 2017, as China takes a hardline stance against Ms Tsai. The breakaway island will feel the suffocating choke of Beijing even more strongly.
Japan is marching towards re-militarisation; North Korea remains under the rule of an unpredictable regime; South Korea is on its way to impeaching a president who had at one point been the cosiest leader to Beijing when she attended a military parade in 2015.
Further south, Sino-ASEAN ties will continue to be dominated, some say haunted, by the South China Sea.
But the most awkward bilateral relation within the larger architecture looks set to shift from Sino-Philippines to Sino-Singapore.
The seizure of Singapore’s nine military armoured vehicles in Hong Kong in November remains unresolved.
The latest news that a top-level bilateral annual meeting has been postponed indefinitely suggests that feathers will be further ruffled between Singapore and China in the Year of the Rooster.
The answer is likely to be fairly optimistic. While China flexes its muscles politically, it is expected to be very friendly in Asia when it comes to economics.
Mr Trump’s ascension will spell the demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an America-led pact which would have included some 40 per cent of the global economy.
That gives China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) a precious lifeline to fill the void, and several countries, including Japan, have signalled its intent to shift from the dying TPP to RCEP.
To add to the alphabet soup, China also has a larger pact called the Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), further lowering tariffs and promoting trade.
China was hoping to seal the RCEP in 2016, but given some member countries were still waiting to see if the TPP could rebound after Mr Trump takes office, it was premature. But the smart money would be to bet on it taking off in 2017.
The 19th Party Congress marks the halfway mark of President Xi Jinping’s supposed 10-year term and changes at the Politburo Standing Committee – the apex body of the party, are expected.
Such a reshuffle usually engenders a fierce and treacherous fighting within the top echelons of the CCP, with some occasionally spilling out into the public eye.
During the last transition in 2012, for instance, the struggle led to the purge of Politburo member Bo Xilai, amid a full-blown drama of corruption, murder and even a Cold War-style defection.
If that is any indication of what is to come in 2017, don’t look away. The big story is in China.
The writer is author of When the Party Ends, winner of the Singapore Literature Prize 2016, and former China bureau chief at The Straits Times. He is also a founding partner of The Nutgraf, a content marketing agency.
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