The Big 12, where points come in bunches, adds a championship game and there are plenty of programs in the running for it.
Ryan Mayer
College football season is almost here. As you prepare to root for your favorite team on Saturday, we’ ll bring you previews of each conference, separating the teams into a couple categories: contenders, bowl teams, and rebuilding. The tiers are fairly self-explanatory. Contenders means these teams will push for the division/conference title. Bowl bidders are expected to be in the conversation for a bowl bid. Rebuilding teams are in the process of attempting to get into contention. At the end, we’ ll give you our thoughts on the team’s wins based on Bovada’s Win Totals for the season.
Welcome to the Big 12, where after months of speculation and presentations to start last season, the conference decided not to expand after all. Instead, they added back the championship game despite having just 10 teams in the conference. This season, there are five teams that could make a run at a title game appearance, which could make this season a lot of fun.
Baker Mayfield #6 of the Oklahoma Sooners. Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners only lost two games last season, but they both came early in high-profile showdowns against Houston and Ohio State. That left them basically out of the playoff picture in people’s minds before conference season began. However, they went on to rip off nine straight victories including a 35-19 pasting of Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. This year, they have a new head coach after Bob Stoops decided to retire, but Lincoln Riley has 16 guys back to work with.
The biggest boost to this team was Baker Mayfield deciding to forgo a chance to enter the NFL Draft and coming back for his senior season. The Sooners need him to guide a set of skill position guys that will be breaking in some new names. Having all five starters back along the offensive line should help as well. Despite the losses of Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and DeDe Westbrook, it’s not like the cupboard is barren at RB/WR. Sophomore backs Rodney Anderson and Abdul Adams are former four and three-star recruits respectively while receivers Jeffrey Mead (Sr.) and Marquise Brown (So, JuCo) were both four-star guys. While they are relatively inexperienced, there’s plenty of talent led by a veteran QB and offensive line. This unit should be explosive once again, though may fall short of the otherworldly 43.9 PPG they averaged last season.
The defense was disappointing last year allowing nearly 30 points per game (28.8) , though some of that can be explained by the significant injuries they suffered along the defensive line. This year, DC Mike Stoops has three starters back in the secondary (including 1st team Big 12 CB Jordan Thomas) , two in the linebackers group and two along the line. I’ d expect some improvement as long as they stay healthier than last year.
Lincoln Riley’s first year as head coach features a road game against Ohio State as well as road contests against K-State and Bedlam in Stillwater against Oklahoma State. Those three games stand out as significant tests as does the always heated Red River rivalry with Texas (hosted in Dallas) . The Sooners have the talent to push for a playoff spot once more and that’s what I’ d expect. Over 9.5 wins
Quarterback Mason Rudolph #2 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Credit: Brett Deering/Getty Images
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys and their fans are still seething over that Central Michigan loss that shouldn’ t have been a loss last season. In the grand scheme of things, it didn’ t matter, but it kept the Cowboys from 11 wins. Mike Gundy and his glorious mullet has a talented team ready to challenge for the Big 12 title again.
Mason Rudolph, like Mayfield at Oklahoma, decided to forgo the draft and return for his senior year. His return, combined with explosive receiver James Washington (1,380 yards 19.4 YPC! 10 TD) and sophomore running back Justice Hill (1,142 yards 6 TD) makes for a group that should once again be among the country’s elite (38.6 PPG last year) . The offensive line gets a boost from the return of guard Larry Williams and the addition of Cal grad transfer Aaron Cochran to make it a veteran group. The Cowboys are annually one of the better offenses in the FBS and this year will be no different.
The defense, was actually pretty solid by Big 12 standards where everything is more wide open due to the prevalence of spread offenses. The Cowboys gave up just 26.5 PPG and the biggest concern was the run defense allowing 193.5 YPG. That could still be a problem considering the loss of both defensive tackles from last year’s unit. DC Glenn Spencer in fact loses a pair of starters at each level of the defense which will likely lead to a drop in that PPG number. The guys to watch are 3rd team Big 12 S Tre Flowers and MLB Chad Whitener, who both return.
The biggest factor in the Cowboys favor is the schedule. They get TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Kansas State at home in Stillwater, with the lone big road game coming against Texas (10/21) . The out of conference slate isn’ t too tough, but don’ t overlook a good Tulsa team in Week 1. The Cowboys should win that game, but Tulsa could make it interesting. Over 9 wins.
Kenny Hill #7 of the TCU Horned Frogs. Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
TCU Horned Frogs
Gary Patterson’s group took an expected step back last season after an 11-2 record in 2015. Still, they made a bowl game, and this year, they have 17 starters returning. The Horned Frogs should be right back in the thick of things in the Big 12.
QB Kenny Hill is back for his senior season after an up-and-down year as the starter last year. He had flashes of brilliance, but plenty of bad moments as he was pulled mid-game four times. He led the Big 12 in interceptions with 13, and will need to be better this season as there’s no experienced QB like Foster Sawyer behind him this season. Luckily for Hill, the top nine receivers are back from last year’s team as is 1,000-yard rusher Kyle Hicks. With a veteran offensive line that brings back four starters, this group is poised for a big year if Hill cuts down on the mistakes.
Defense has always been Patterson’s calling card, but in the last couple of years, the Horned Frogs have fallen off a bit allowing 27.2 PPG in 2015 and 28 last season. This year, he’s got a more veteran group back as a pair of All-Big 12 LBs and the entire secondary returns. They do lose three guys along the offensive line including leading sack master DE Josh Carraway. But, Patterson has recruited well, with seven three-star or better guys along the defensive line from previous years along with three-star true freshman DE Ochaun Mathis. The numbers should improve this year.
The Horned Frogs have to play OK State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma on the road, which makes for a tough path to winning the conference. It can be done, but they’ ll have to pull off some big wins on the road. Regardless, I have them beating the Vegas number. Over 7.5 wins.
Shane Buechele #7 of the Texas Longhorns. Credit: Chris Covatta/Getty Images
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns started off 5-4 before dropping their final three games including a stunning OT loss to Kansas to finish 5-7. That led to Charlie Strong’s ousting and in comes Tom Herman from Houston. Herman guided the Cougars to a 22-4 mark in his two seasons at the helm and he’s got some good talent to get his tenure started here.
Last year, true freshman QB Shane Buechele won the job with senior Tyrone Swoopes seeing time in the “18 Wheeler Package” that was designed as a power running formation. Buechele acquitted himself well enough for a freshman completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 2,958 yards 21 TDs and 11 INTs. With a veteran offensive line (four starters back) and his top three receivers returning, those numbers should go up with Herman at the helm. The Longhorns do lose workhorse back D’ Onta Foreman who left early for the NFL (Texans 3rd round pick) , but Chris Warren should be able to pick up some of the slack with the solid line in front of him. In Herman’s two years at Texas, the Cougars scored 40+ points and 35 points respectively, so I’ d expect this unit to improve on last year’s 31.9 PPG from last year.
The defense was bad to start the season allowing 47,50,49, and 45 points in the first five weeks (gave up 7 to UTEP) . Then, Charlie Strong took over and the group improved allowing an average of 25.7 PPG over the final seven games. This season, new DC Todd Orlando inherits 10 starters from last year’s unit, but they switch to a 3-4 so there will be some adjustment. Overall, the returning experience leads me to expect a performance in line with the last seven games of last year.
The schedule has a crucial five week stretch that will determine whether the Longhorns are contending for the Big 12 title or just a bowl team. Starting on October 7th, Texas faces Kansas State, Oklahoma, OK State, Baylor and TCU with the final two games being on the road. How Herman navigates that five game stretch will determine the level of success he has in Year 1. Over 7.5.
Jesse Ertz #16 of the Kansas State Wildcats. Credit: Tom Pennington/Getty Images
Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder returns for his ninth year in this go round with the Wildcats and his 26th year overall with the program with a team that is one of the most experienced groups he’s had. 14 starters are back including eight on offense and the Wildcats are once again going to be a tough out in the Big 12.
Jesse Ertz returns for his second season as the starting QB after leading the team in passing and rushing last season. His completion percentage left something to be desired (57.6%) but, his effectiveness as a runner is unquestioned (5.5 YPC, 1,012 yards) . The Wildcats took a running back by committee approach to the ground game last year and everybody but Charles Jones (596 yards 2 TD) returns. Three of the top four receivers are back and the offensive line has four starters back too. Last year, they averaged 32.2 PPG and they should easily match that number this year.
On defense there are a couple of key losses as DE Derek Willis (3rd round pick Bengals) , LBs Elijah Lee (7th round pick Vikings) and Charmeachealle Moore, and S Dante Barnett depart. That said, the defensive line returns everyone but Willis and the secondary has everyone outside of Barnett back. Despite the losses, Snyder always has a solid defense, and I’ d expect more of the same this year.
The schedule doesn’ t feature a stretch as rough as Texas’ but it does have the Wildcats facing Texas (away) , TCU (home) and Oklahoma (home) in consecutive weeks to start October. That stretch will be tough, but a veteran offense should be able to pull out a win or two and get this team back to nine wins. Over 8 wins.
Quarterback Zach Smith #4 of the Baylor Bears. Credit: Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Baylor Bears
At this point, you should be well aware of the turmoil surrounding the Baylor program.
