Unlike most of the last several years we headed into January without a clear cut favorite in the Best Picture category and recent awards from other organizations for films such as Green Book, A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody have done nothing to make that picture any clearer.
Oscars Courtesy of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
Obscenely early on January 22nd, everyone in the movie industry, and the general public for that matter, will finally know who has been nominated for the 91st annual Academy Awards. Oscar voting began this past Monday – no, I won’t tell you who was on my ballot – and concludes on January 14th. Eight days later hundreds in the movie industry will find out whether they will spend the next month working the rubber chicken publicity circuit or heading to their next paying gigs.
Unlike most of the last several years we headed into January without a clear cut favorite in the Best Picture category and recent awards from other organizations for films such as Green Book, A Star Is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody have done nothing to make that picture any clearer. So I’ll do my best to blow some of the sawdust away and try to put the major categories into perspective. As always, however, don’t take these predictions as gospel and don’t go running to Ladbroke’s to lay a fiver.
Best Picture
The Nominees Are- Though the Academy rules allow up to ten films to be nominated in this category the number usually hovers around nine. If that’s the case then the favorites to grab a nomination, in alphabetical order, are A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk and Roma with Crazy Rich Asians stealing a surprise nod as well.
Green Book Courtesy of Universal Pictures
And The Oscar Goes To- It will be interesting to see what effect the fallout from director Peter Farrelly’s and writer Nick Vallelonga’s recent controversies will have on Green Book ‘s chances. It won the Golden Globes (in the Comedy/Musical category for some reason) but that’s not always a harbinger of what’s to come on Oscar night. Whether they want to admit it or not, there are still many Never-Netflix’ers in the Academy so Roma may face an uphill battle. Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Motion Picture Drama at the Globes but if Oscar voters want to reward the film they’re more likely to go the Rami Malek route for Best Actor. A Star Is Born may turn out to be the most viable option for voters but it also may end up being everyone’s second choice.
